TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says most people -- including the Fed governors -- haven't spotted this market Achilles heel.
Round up the usual suspects: Radian (NYSE: RDN) (Cramer's Take) - MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) - MGIC (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take) - Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) - PMI (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take).
Throw in walking dead ACA Capital (NYSE: ACA) (Cramer's Take) and Security Capital (NYSE: SCA) (Cramer's Take), and I think you produce what is really wrong with this market.
Anybody who takes even a casual look at the October delinquencies knows that these companies are going to be severely capital-challenged. Meanwhile, value guys like Third Avenue Management (Radian) and fellow travelers (Old Republic and PMI) make Pyrrhic stands and engender short squeezes that are mistakenly not used to recapitalize. And outfits from E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) (Cramer's Take) to Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) are left holding the bag on this stuff.
It is the insurers that seem to be ignored -- still -- as the Achilles' heel that will make it so that so many institutions have to regard junk as nonperforming. The perfect soggy chain of Moody's and Standard & Poor's rating these firms in turn gives Moody's and S&P the right to rate so many stupid structured products as AAA and AA, and that holds the linchpin to the next move down.
Of course, Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take) would suffer greatly from these insurers' downgrades as it would virtually shut off any ability to grow out of the problems or take advantage of the giant spreads that are developing.
Somehow I think this whole fragile scenario is just too opaque for the Fed to understand.
I hate ever accusing the Fed of stupidity. That's the type of thing that makes people feel like you're a gadfly. But stocks don't lie in unison, and this group is being taken down like a whole closet of cheap suits. Meanwhile, Indymac (NYSE: IMB) (Cramer's Take) fights for its life and Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) (Cramer's Take) is on life support and the Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) crowd is acting as if the worst isn't so bad after all.
This whole "we are fine" nonsense bothers me immensely because it is so overlooked and so misunderstood. And that's because it requires a giant look through so many pieces of paper and so many 10Qs.
But go ahead. For example, look at the 10Qs from E*Trade and CIT (NYSE: CIT) (Cramer's Take) to see what I'm talking about. Although the former is a little opaque, the latter really breaks things down for all to see.
Put simply, the defaults in home equity are off the charts, particularly in Florida and California. Yet the apologists for housing continue unabated.
Yeah, we are fine -- real fine!
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider ACA Capital, Security Capital and Standard Pacific to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-20-2007 @ 6:55PM
tony grimaldi said...
Jim, in the 6 months that I watched your show every one who calls gives you a big compliment. I have no idea why? I have 8 total stocks like BAM, T, TXN, RAD, CVTX, DYN, NSTK-- what do I do with these? Now you blame us because we have to do homework. That is why I spend 1 hour a day watching your show. I thought you did homework? Tony Grimaldi
11-21-2007 @ 1:45AM
John Lysek said...
I Do Not Believe It! I actually agree with Cramer!...and I always thought the guy was an idiot...me bad.
11-21-2007 @ 10:36PM
sc said...
cramer is just entertainment, do not take him seriously, he is a hack...
11-26-2007 @ 1:43PM
ALASTAIR said...
I too must join the chorus in agreeing with Jim Cramer that if Citi goes so go all of us. However, if Citi is delivered from the grave, we are all going to pay through the nose for the massive array of law suites bought against Citi and countless other Wall Street institutions. That could be far worse than the effects of a Fed failing to help out.
I'm also concerned that our Treasury Secretary and our Fed chief are just too damn slow to realize what dire peril we are facing. Like so many good Republicans, they continue to believe in trickle up relief spooned out in tiny doses. All too little and too late. Shouldn't the Fed funds rate and the discount rate by closer to zero now?
It is ironic that Dr. Bernanke, an authority on the causes of the last depression, may be overlooking all the signs leading to the next one.