Democratic-led Congress seen hiking mpg standards

With the U.S. Federal Appeals Court of San Francisco's ruling that threw out proposed fuel economy standards, look for a renewed effort by the current U.S. Congress to pass new, tougher standards, possibly by year's end, a source familiar with various lobbying groups told Bloggingstocks.

Based in Washington and familiar with Democratic Party and energy-issue constituencies, the source told Bloggingstocks that some legislation, albeit minor, was now likely.

"Don't expect miracles, but the public sentiment and Congressional support appears to be there for a modest increase in CAFE [Corporate Average Fuel Economy] standard," he said, speaking on condition that he not be identified by name. He added that to-date the Bush Administration has resisted raising the CAFE; if the administration does so again, it's unclear whether Congress would have the votes to override the veto.

The San Francisco court sided with four environmental groups and 13 cities and states who asked the U.S. Government to explain why it set lower fuel economy standards for light trucks, SUVs and minivans, than it did for cars.

U.S. auto manufacturers have argued that higher standards for trucks/SUVs would force them to discontinue popular models, an argument with some validity in the past, but which is starting to come into question, given generally sagging sales for lower-mpg vehicles in 2007.

Analysts say a primary factor in declining sales is the shift in consumers' psychology: consumers now expect gasoline prices to remain high, and trend higher in the immediate years ahead, and are now seeking higher mpg vehicles to compensate for the higher fuel costs.

Political Analysis: With the courts, and equally significant, consumers, now favoring higher mpg vehicles, look for the Democratic Party-led U.S. Congress to pass higher fuel efficiency standards.Typically, U.S. automakers would have the upper hand on this issue, but there's a sense now from lobbyists in Washington that the higher mpg goal has overwhelming support, and that the lobbying effort will center around stretching-out the implementation time-table, to phase-in costs associated with meeting the higher standards.

Further, Congress' ability to override a possible presidential veto would most likely hinge on the program's cost to automakers, with Congress more-likely to vote to override a veto of a modest-cost proposal.
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