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A new look at the XM-Sirius merger

With nothing better to do the day before Thanksgiving, The Wall Street Journal has decided to revisit the odds of whether a merger between the two satellite radio companies, XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) have improved. The paper writes "in the past few months, investors have shown increasing confidence of the deal's winning approval from the Federal Communications Commission and the Justice Department."

There may be a few good reasons that the chances of a deal have improved, but they are hardly compelling.

Some of the car companies have come out in favor of the merger. That would only make sense. Marketing two platforms is probably a bit of a mess. A fair number of congressmen who want to look good say the merger is bad for consumers, and will drive up prices. There isn't any hard evidence of that, but it is a nice talking point.

There is probably an economic reason for a merger. Both companies have over a billion dollars in debt. Paying that down would probably be easier with the savings from combining the companies.

But Wall Street may look at the share prices of XM and Sirius and say that they are the best sign that a merger looks good. The stocks are both up 25% in the last three months. Maybe investors are gambling the deal is looking better.

There is another reason for the stocks to be up: Both companies are still growing and adding subscribers. The firms may still be losing money, but they are moving closer to break-even.

That has nothing to do with a merger.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 07:29 AM

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