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Ride the rails with CSX

Way back in the 20th century, rails were hardly considered a growth play. But with consistent demand for commodities and raw materials, along with the (seemingly) continual rise in truck transport costs, the rails are becoming a primary shipment mode, which means good things -- long-term -- for rail companies.

Among the rails, CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX) is a company worth a review. CSX operates the largest rail network in the eastern United States, with a 22,000-mile network in 23 states and two Canadian provinces.

In general, analysts see CSX's revenue growth slowing somewhat in 2007, offset by better margins, pricing power (including expired contracts repricing) and improved asset utilization.

Further, coal traffic may slow heading into 2008, but intermodal traffic is expected to remain solid. Numerous infrastructure improvements and capacity increases should improve CSX's delivery times and reduce dwell times. In addition, trading around $42 with a p/e of 16, CSX currently is somewhat of a bargain, as Wall Street has discounted CSX's share for a U.S. economic slowdown, taking the stock down about 20% from a $52-high reached this summer.

The qualifiers? A weakening U.S. economy will hurt CSX's results, as would reduced demand for coal and/or a very severe, rail transport-disrupting winter. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for CSX are $2.53/$2.93.

Absent the above, however, or the emergence of a cheap alternative fuel for trucks -- the rails' primary competitor -- look for CSX to continue to post solid results as a major commercial transport form for the nation.

The First Call mean rating for CSX is Hold (16 firms). Mean 2008 target: $48.80 (high: $59, low: $44).

Stock Analysis: CSX Corp. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from CSX's shares. A suitable Sell / Stop Loss for a purchaser of shares in this company seems to be $27.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 06:42 PM

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