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Harsh headwind: Some pensions reducing U.S. stock stakes

Under the category of "the stock market did not need this additional headwind," some of the largest public pension funds have been selling shares in a big way, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The Journal said the New York State Teachers' Retirement System, the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and the Florida Retirement System Pension Plan are all funds that are reducing stakes in U.S. companies. Collectively, these funds control more than $500 billion in assets.

Further, and equally significant, the nation's largest fund, the $250-billion California Public Employees' Retirement System (Calpers) is considering shedding its home-country bias, the Sacramento Bee reported.

One plan calls for Calpers to reduce U.S. equities exposure to 28.4% from 40% and increase international equities exposure to 28.4% from 20%. The Calpers Board of Directors is expected to vote on the measure next month.

Market Analysis: First, while it's probably best to await quarterly data before forming a conclusion on the aforementioned pension fund sales, the sales, if system-wide, cannot be a positive for U.S. stock prices in the immediate period ahead (six months).

As emerging markets develop, an increase in a fund's international stock allocation can be expected; as a nation's economy develops, it should generate companies that can compete on the global stage.

Second, a minor increase in a fund's international component could also reflect an increase in confidence in new markets' transparency, liquidity, capital safety provisions/compliance, favorable tax rates and, equally important, the rule of law.

However, if forthcoming data indicates that the shift to foreign equities reflects a pension sector-wide belief that U.S. economic growth and stock performance will markedly underperform overseas stocks during the next year or so, that would be sentiment the typical investor would need to weigh carefully, due to its impact on the U.S. market. Stay tuned...

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 06:57 PM

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