National Oilwell likes the long-term view

It doesn't take a geologist or an oil sector engineer to figure out that oil / energy-based companies are in demand in this era of elevated energy prices. And when these companies need parts for maintenance, that's where National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) comes in.

National Oilwell designs, manufactures and markets components and systems used in oil and gas drilling/production. Here's a telling statistic regarding NOV's involvement: more than 90% of mobile offshore rigs and a majority of land rig use components manufactured by NOV. Those are Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)-type usage numbers.

In general, analysts see continued, strong EPS growth for NOV: the growth in offshore rig newbuild orders may decelerate in 2008, but overall orders should nevertheless remain strong in 2008. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for NOV are $3.72/$4.53.

Another positive: It's important to note that slowing newbuild orders will not spell the end of NOV's solid returns on equity. The reason? The world's stock of rigs is deteriorating, with the average rig exceeding its designed life expectancy. In other words, there are lots of older rigs in use, replacing or upgrading these rigs will generate substantial work for NOV, and these tasks are destined to remain high-margin activities.

The First Call mean rating for NOV is: Buy. [19 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $81.30. [high: $90, low: $63.]

Stock Analysis: National Oilwell is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than one year should be rewarded from NOV's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $49.