Serious Money: My poison financials: WM, BSC, IMB, & BPOP

Posted Nov 27th 2007 4:30PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Rants and Raves, Market Matters, Countrywide Financial (CFC), Washington Mutual (WM), Serious Money, IndyMac Bancorp (IMB), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)

My newest portfolio is my worst portfolio and the only one that is negative. How did this happen? The poison financials and my bad timing, that's how! It is embarrassing, to say the least, and I take no joy in reporting my blunders. I hope readers will appreciate the fact that I am willing to discuss everything and not just the bright spots.

Furthermore when I put my foot in my mouth I do it with style and grandeur. Take note of the story titles because they would be hysterical except for the fact that I really did buy these stocks and I still own them with one exception; so I'm not laughing too loud. I sold Washington Mutual in all but one portfolio at $36 a share. The following indicates the date of the original story. The closing prices are from Monday, November 26, 2007.

April 11, 2007: Chasing Value: Washington Mutual - WaMu (NYSE: WM) closed at $16.81 down from $39.00: A loss of -56.9%
April 17, 2007: Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing (NYSE: BSC) closed at $91.04 down from $148.00: A loss of -38.5%
May 1, 2007: Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime (NYSE: IMB) closed at $7.82 down from $30.09: A loss of -74%
June 19, 2007: Chasing Value: Bank Popular (BPOP) should be very popular (NYSE: BPOP) closed at $9.10 down from $17.00: A loss of -46.5%

No title could be more ironic and more wrong than the IMB story, unless of course your objective was to lose money. One of my older and wiser friends (A.L.) who manages money for high net worth individuals raised his eyebrows as he repeated the story title to me the day the story was posted. Now I hear his words every time I think about IMB. Had you followed my lead into the fog your average loss would be about 54%!

I did manage to stay away from Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) which is down 80%, and my heart goes out to those of you who bought in at the top. I have been known to repeat myself, and some things are truly worth repeating -- "Here is a point that may be lost on the average investor: Even if there was no problem whatsoever with subprime mortgages and even if not one single mortgage holder was foreclosed on, Countrywide's business is down perhaps 80% and it is losing money -- profits are not to be found."

Only a small percentage of new loans are being written by any of these institutions compared to the business they were doing last year and the year before. That means the only scenario for recovery to me is lots of mergers and acquisitions. This will help in many ways. It will resize the financial sector so that the supply and demand figures are appropriate to today's market. Second the books of these companies will be reviewed by other, hopefully more sophisticated, but at the very least, more cynical eyes.

I imagine that these companies will be in bad shape for another 18 to 24 months as this industry sorts itself out and the housing market makes some slight improvement. Until then, this is very dead money.

If you have not read Conservative bankers? Surely you jest! it would serve you well to give it a look. My winners still outshine the losers and that is a matter of record, too. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.