Fed be nimble, Fed be quick

Still, the above paragraph contains the qualifier "right now" because, as most investors/readers know, the markets received a modicum of good news when U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn buttressed expectations of another interest rate cut from the Fed, Reuters reported. Kohn said the Fed needed to be nimble and pragmatic regarding monetary policy.

Those nimble/pragmatic descriptives were enough to convince the Street that the Fed may not be so neutral regarding monetary policy when it next meets on December 11, and that the Fed may in fact cut rates again. Further, the rate cut is not as important as the Street's sentiment that the Fed has not gone away: the Street now senses that the Fed hasn't given up considering ways to stimulate the U.S. economy, if necessary. And that's what sent the Dow sailing well into three-digit territory.

The Dow is also being helped by modest good news on the oil front. Despite conflicting reports from OPEC members, some oil production increase, by Saudi Arabia and/or other members, is likely. That fact, plus a weekly U.S. Department of Energy report indicating that oil supplies declined less than expected sent oil down $3.80 to $90.62 per barrel. Even more significant, oil sentiment may be shifting: many traders now believe supplies will be adequate for the Northern Hemisphere winter and that Saudi Arabia will increase production to push oil under $80 per barrel.

Market Analysis: Keep your eye on the 200-day moving average for the Dow. Three consecutive closes above that average would be a bullish sign. Three consecutive closes above does not guarantee that the selling is finished, but if the Dow remains above the average, that would indicate that institutions are adding money to the market, which is the first step in a rally. It's also a signal by those institutions that they believe better times are ahead for the U.S. economy.