Oil fell below $90 per barrel for the first time in a month Friday, after Enbridge Inc. reopened the biggest pipeline to the U.S. from Canada, Bloomberg News reported.
Crude declined $1.67 to $89.34. Heating oil fell about 4 cents to $2.53, and unleaded gasoline declined 3 cents to $2.23.
Independent Energy Trader Jim Dietz told Bloggingtocks Friday that the Canada pipeline accident was a momentary event that only temporarily deflected the oil market away from an ongoing oil price pullback.
"With OPEC's likely production increase, sentiment has shifted to a continued pull-back for oil. If we close below $90 per barrel today, that would be bearish for oil, short-term, but good news for just about everybody else, I guess," Dietz said.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, indicated it will increase production by 500,000 barrels of spare capacity in December to ensure that consumers are adequately supplied, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in Singapore on Nov. 28, Reuters reported.
Safety cushion
Dietz said oil demand remains strong, but OPEC's effort, led by Saudi Arabia, increases the oil market's safety cushion, or the difference between global oil supply and demand.
"Traders are confident now that there will be enough oil for the [Northern Hemisphere] winter," Dietz said. "The Saudi's decision makes an enormous difference in this market. There's even a chance that some crude supplies could begin to build in certain areas, which would be a change for this market."
The 10 OPEC countries subject to quotas will supply 27.5 million barrels a day this month, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. OPEC's official production target is 27.25 million barrels per day.
Ends day trades
Dietz said he ended his oil day trades for a loss, but has maintained his one monthly crude oil trade, hoping for a slight rebound in price by Friday's end; he added that the monthly trade "is up substantially."
"More than likely, we'll close Friday below $90 per barrel," Dietz said. "Of course supply conditions can change at any time, and we're not talking about demand, but for the first time in about two months it looks like oil is likely to continue to fall, which should help the U.S. economy and consumers."
Dietz expects oil to test support at $87 and at $85 next week.
"The next major support after that occurs at $80, but let's see how the market does at $87 first," he said.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-30-2007 @ 10:59AM
michael schneider said...
CNBC reported today that a Saudi spokesman today said there may not be a production increase next week. Trader comments on the latest nat gas inventory numbers available free in Oil Alerts (light blue label, left side) at http://www.Barrelomoney.com also reflect the view that a production increase is not assured. It seems the oil market has calmed down since the statements about increasing output so we will have to wait and see if OPEC members are rethinking this.