As politics in Venezuela get dicey, oil may rise again

Hugo Chávez, the head of Venezuela, is hardly the most stable leader of a large nation. He may rank with Kim Jong il of North Korea in a race for odd-ball national presidents.

The mental state of the chief of a South American country may not seem terribly important until, that is, he threatens to cut off the supply of oil to the U.S. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "in a fiery speech before tens of thousands, President Hugo Chávez alleged the U.S. was planning to sabotage a vote Sunday on proposed constitutional changes and threatened to cut off oil shipments if Washington did so."

The odds that the CIA or some other organization is actually trying to mess with the elections in Venezuela are fairly small. But, given the history of the American intelligence community, they cannot be ruled out altogether.

Humor aside, if Mr. Chávez does make good on his threat, even if only because he is mad, the effect could be much greater than the explosion last week on one of the oil pipelines between Canada and the U.S. Hugo can take the price of a barrel of crude up to $100 all by himself.

As December rolls in, oil watchers will be turning their attention south. Oil's assault on $100 was turned back last week, but that was not the end of it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.