The odds of a 2007 Energy Bill passing the Democratic Party-led U.S. Congress, with President Bush's blessing, "Are still likely," according to a Washington-based, public policy lobbyist with knowledge of the matter.

"The bill will need a few revisions, but I'd say it's a 70/30 go, in favor of the bill being signed by the president," the lobbyist told Bloggingstocks Tuesday, on condition he not be identified by name.

The lobbyist, who represents primarily Democratic Party-based constituencies, said the the bill's renewable energy component and potential tax increases remain the hangups in the bill.

Modification likely

"More than likely President Bush will get the renewable energy component modified, but the Democrats may gain extra footing with better solar/wind energy credits," he said.

The bill current would require utilities to generate more power from renewable energy. Lawmakers from the Southeast U.S. have said they're concerned that utilities in their states will not be able to meet the requirement, due to a lack of wind power, The Wall Street Journal reported.

"It's a legitimate argument, but Democrats on the Hill are not like to modify the provision without an offsetting trade, probably a higher solar/wind energy credit," the lobbyist said.

MPG at core

The bill's core is the federal vehicle miles per gallon standard. The proposed energy bill would raise the current corporate average fleet economy [CAFE] standard to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The current requirement, 27.5 miles per gallon, hasn't been changed since 1985.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) has expressed concern about the bill's impact on vehicle prices, The New York Times reported.

Still, the lobbyist said the "economic and environmental conditions were right" to legislate a higher fuel economy standard.

"The core of the bill, the miles per gallon component, is safe. The public is behind it, both economically and environmentally, the Congress has heard that, and President Bush is likely to agree with that portion of the bill," he said. "The renewable energy requirement will have to be revised, as well as a few other measures."

Taxes

President Bush is also likely to oppose a possible tax package tacked on to the bill.

"Some House Democrats have expressed an interest in one, but I don't think you'll see a tax measure, at this juncture, because it's a non-starter from the White House's standpoint," he said. "Right now, the sense on the Hill from both Democrats and Republicans is 'Let's stick to points on which both sides agree, miles per gallon and a modified renewable energy component, and get that bill done."

Holiday present

Finally, the Congressional holiday recess may help a revised bill become law, the lobbyist said. That's because both Democrats and Republicans expect little to be accomplished next year, an election year, when the focus will be on the 2008 Congressional and presidential campaigns and elections.

"The energy bill is a way each side can say to the voters, 'See, despite our differences, we were able to get something done this session. We passed an innovative Energy Bill,' " he said. "It'll be a nice holiday present from elected officials to the voters."