A food policy research group is predicting substantial increases in food prices, arguing that a combination of factors will lead to rising food prices "for the foreseeable future."

The International Food Policy Research Institute said a major secular trend -- falling food prices prompted by high-yield grains and technological advancement, among other factors -- is set to end.

IFPRI Director Joachim Braun said climate risk and climate change, rising demand for food in emerging markets, and trade barriers will contribute to higher food prices in the decades ahead. For example, global warming is expected to decrease global agricultural production by 16% by 2020, while China and India and other rapidly-developing markets increase demand for meat and dairy products, increasing the price of those goods, as well as grain.

In addition, farmers have been switching crops to plant biofuels, reducing the global food supply and pushing prices higher.

At the same time, trade barriers are also increasing the price of food. The IFPRI said the world needs to lower barriers to increase trade and the supply of food. If undertaken, this should help lessen price increases.

Economic Analysis: The IFPRI report is one of a series of initial research documents confirming rising foods costs, both in the developed and developing world, and it's one that national decision makers need to heed. The secular factors affecting energy prices are also affecting food, albeit with more-modest price increases. The 1960s-1970s argi-tech revolution helped increase crop yields, and it appears the world will need another agriculture tech revolution to meet rising food demand in the decades ahead.

The IFPRI report does not give enough attention to the early 21st century's agriculture economy successes, such as rising production and farm incomes in Central/South America, but it does accurately summarize the climate and demand factors at the heart of the food issue.