And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.
Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)
Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE: BNI) $89, p/e 17. Stop Loss: $56.
Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) $129, p/e of 19. Stop Loss: $84.
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) $52, p/e 14. Stop Loss: $33.
CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) $42, p/e 16. Stop Loss: $27.
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (NYSE: CP) $66, p/e 14. Stop Loss: $44.
As most investors/readers know, the railroad stocks were out of favor on Wall Street for the longest time. After world war II, auto travel spelled the decline of civilian rail transport, and truck transport displaced trains as the primary freight transport method.
The rails were seemingly about set to fade into oblivion when history finally started to swing in the rails' favor late in the last century. In the 1990s, the Cold War ended, and globalization started. Emerging markets became new buyers of commodities and raw materials, and railroads added new international customers. Meanwhile, the price oil began its decade-long march higher, to near-record levels this year, making container transport by rail cheaper in most instances than truck transport. And suddenly, the rails had new domestic customers for finished goods, to go along with its commodity transport business.
The risks: This is not to say owning a railroad stock does not have risks. The rails remain vulnerable to a sustained downturn in the U.S. and/or global economies, and also vulnerable to the development of a cheap, widely-available, alternate fuel source for trucks.
But absent the above, the prospects look good for the rails long-term. Even better, urban highway congestion projections suggests that the rails will play a large role in inter-city goods transport: It's hard for trucks to get goods to their destination quickly when the highways are jammed.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-06-2007 @ 7:04AM
MrNiceGuy said...
Unless you keep your money in the chicken house, I think the word you're looking for is "recoup."