Slim Down for Summer with That's Fit

AOL Money & Finance

Always lost at Monopoly? Re-coop with a railroad stock

Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.

And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.

Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)

Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (NYSE: BNI) $89, p/e 17. Stop Loss: $56.
Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) $129, p/e of 19. Stop Loss: $84.
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) $52, p/e 14. Stop Loss: $33.
CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) $42, p/e 16. Stop Loss: $27.
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (NYSE: CP) $66, p/e 14. Stop Loss: $44.

As most investors/readers know, the railroad stocks were out of favor on Wall Street for the longest time. After world war II, auto travel spelled the decline of civilian rail transport, and truck transport displaced trains as the primary freight transport method.

The rails were seemingly about set to fade into oblivion when history finally started to swing in the rails' favor late in the last century. In the 1990s, the Cold War ended, and globalization started. Emerging markets became new buyers of commodities and raw materials, and railroads added new international customers. Meanwhile, the price oil began its decade-long march higher, to near-record levels this year, making container transport by rail cheaper in most instances than truck transport. And suddenly, the rails had new domestic customers for finished goods, to go along with its commodity transport business.

The risks: This is not to say owning a railroad stock does not have risks. The rails remain vulnerable to a sustained downturn in the U.S. and/or global economies, and also vulnerable to the development of a cheap, widely-available, alternate fuel source for trucks.

But absent the above, the prospects look good for the rails long-term. Even better, urban highway congestion projections suggests that the rails will play a large role in inter-city goods transport: It's hard for trucks to get goods to their destination quickly when the highways are jammed.

Related Posts

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+73.0311,288.54
NASDAQ-6.082,245.38
S&P 500+1.381,262.90

Last updated: July 06, 2008: 05:53 PM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

Weblogs, Inc. Network