Maureen Dowd, Bush, Iran, Psych 101 and confirmation bias

Posted Dec 5th 2007 2:30PM by Peter Cohan

New York Times op-editorialiste Maureen Dowd has an interesting comment on George Bush's reaction to intelligence that contradicts his repeated claims that Iran is working on a "nucular" bomb. She harped on Bush's quip about "Psychology 101" in response to a question about his dispirited body language.

In fact, Bush was on to something but Dowd failed to pick it up -- Bush's attitude towards the Iran intelligence was a classic example of confirmation bias -- the tendency of decision-makers to lap up information consistent with their beliefs and to ignore that which contradicts them. The Economist recently summarized an article I wrote on the topic which was published in Business Strategy Review.

Ever since his "Axis of Evil" speech it seems that Bush has been looking for an excuse to attack Iran. So rather than admit that he was wrong for repeating over and over that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb, Bush used the report to justify his belligerent attitude. While he certainly comes off as a petulant child, he is still President.

And as his Iraq mis-adventure illustrates -- with its manufactured evidence of weapons of mass destruction -- confirmation bias in the hands of a powerful person can be lethal.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

12-06-2007 @ 4:48PM

Mo MoDo said...

Maureen Dowd sees the wreckage in the Middle East as similar to the cars Dubya wrecked during his drinking days.

http://dowdreport.blogspot.com/2007/12/pop-psychology.html

She says that Dubya has "daddy issues" and that is tough to dismiss. He does also have the confirmation bias you describe. Someday entire textbooks will be devoted to Bush's many pathologies.

12-06-2007 @ 2:19AM

Mike Ghouse said...

Protect American democracy

We have the best system of governance in the world, yet, once we elect a President, we are stuck for 4 years; there is something seriously wrong with this. To remedy this particular situation the democracies in UK, Israel, Australia, India, Canada and South Africa have chosen the safety valve route – dump the leader with a no-confidence move. All it takes is 2/3rds of the house, the good men and women to floor the non confidence move against the leader. This option keeps the rascals from becoming bullies and fascists.

I hope we consider adopting this system to ensure our democracy from falling into the wrong hands.

The reason evil exists in the world is not because of evil men, but because good people don’t do anything about it.

God Bless the USA.

Mike Ghouse
http://mikeghouseforamerica.blogspot.com/
www.MikeGhouse.net

12-10-2007 @ 10:43AM

TAMA said...

In short, true feelings is support for Israel, isn't it?
Iran supports Hezbollah and Hamas, so that Bush cavils Iran by nuclear problem, don't he?
Good grief･･･Bush is Israel's Poodle:-p