Ciena (CIEN) falls on weak outlook

CIENA Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) stock is falling this morning after the company has issued a sales forecast for 2008 that was below Wall Street's estimate. CIEN forecast that sales would rise 20% to $935.8 million, while Wall Street was expecting a rise of 21% to $945.4 million. CIEN also reported a fourth-quarter $13 million loss on a short-term investment known as an SIV. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CIEN.

After hitting a one-year low of $24.50 last November, the stock hit a one-year high of $49.55 in October. This morning, CIEN opened at $40.36. So far today the stock has hit a low of $37.23 and a high of $40.44. As of 11:10, CIEN is trading at $37.97, down $4.15 (-9.8%). The chart for CIEN looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $55 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 5.3% return in 4 months as long as CIEN is below $55 at April expiration. Ciena would have to rise by more than 44% before we would start to lose money.

CIEN has not been above $50 at all in the past year, and shown resistance around $42.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the tech sector is strong in the coming months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance the stock formed between$45 and $50 over the past 3 months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CIEN.