The Energy Information Administration's long-term energy outlook is that average crude prices will be $67 by 2010 and $72 by 2030. The second number is an upward revision of nearly 20% over last year's forecast.

While these numbers may seem modest compared to current oil prices and may turn out to be too low, they highlight the fact that even the US government sees sharp rises in the price of crude. Perhaps the most important projection from the new government study is that "dearer oil will crimp economic growth. EIA projects the economy will grow by 2.6 percent per year between now and 2030, down from last year's projection of a 2.9 percent growth rate," according to CNN Money.

The model assumes that alternative energy use will continue to grow, but that "the nation will emit 25 percent more carbon dioxide in 2030 than it did in 2006."

There does not appear to be any good news in the report, and perhaps that is the best news of all. Now that the government is admitting that there is a long-term problem with oil consumption, perhaps Congress will take a harder look at how to alleviate the problem.

There is, of course, the chance that the government is wrong. Oil is now back above $90, and predictions still abound that it will top $100. Analysis shows that oil-producing countries are keeping more crude to build their own economies. Consumption in nations like China is not falling.

If the growth rate in the U.S. economy will be 2.6% between now and 2030 with oil at $67, what will it be if crude stays above $90?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.