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Northrop Grumman is oceans ahead of the competition

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Readers of this space know that the preference is for long-term plays with companies with demonstrated business models (10 years), in an established market, with an average total annual return on equity of 20% during that span. It also helps if the company has a secular tailwind and/or is one of only a few players in a sector.

On the last point, Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) ranks very high, and it fares reasonably well in the other categories, too.

Northrop is the U.S.'s No. 3 defense contractor and the No. 1 shipbuilder in the world. Analysts like NOC's operational diversity, cash flow, and solid balance, but the company's standout dimensions, from an investment standpoint, are its electronics systems business (21% of revenue) and its ship building business (17% of revenue).

The electronics business is likely to remain a key player in radar/navigation/communications systems, moving forward, and the ships business is also in a preferred position: it's one of only two nuclear-power submarine makers in the U.S. and the only builder of U.S. aircraft carriers. Of course, no one can predict with any certainty the role aircraft carriers will play in defense operations -- the aircraft carrier's demise has been predicted for (seemingly) the past three decades -- but the sense here is that these ships will retain a role in the decades ahead. The company also builds the B-2 stealth bomber and has a 25% stake in the F-35 next-generation, joint-strike fighter.

The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for NOC are $5.13/5.62. Investors/readers should also note that despite the market's many gyrations and negative housing-related news announcements since August 2007, NOC's shares have declined only about 8%-9% as of mid-December 2007.

The risks? A substantial pull-back in U.S. Department of Defense spending would (obviously) hurt NOC's results, and cost overruns/delays on projects also could affect future orders.

The First Call mean rating for NOC is: Hold (20 firms). Mean 2008 target: $87 (high: $97, low: $80).

Stock Analysis: Northrop Grumman is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from NOC's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $54.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 05:48 PM

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