On October 9, the S&P 500 index rose 12.57 points to close at a record high of 1565.15. The move was attributed to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting that indicated the central bank wasn't seeing any broad-based weakness in the U.S. economy.
But based on the performance of the overall market and various sectors since then, it seems that investors didn't necessarily buy into what policymakers said.
Over the course of 10 weeks, the benchmark measure has fallen by 6.9%, hurt by growing turbulence in credit markets and heightened fears over the health of the consumer and the state of the economy.
At the same time, some of the best performing groups have been those that often hold their own when investors are worried about the future. From the early October market peak, both the consumer staples and the utility sectors have gained 3.9%.
The big losers over the span: financials and consumer discretionary shares, which have lost 18.6% and 12.6%, respectively.
While it is still possible that the Fed's relatively sanguine views about the economy could prove correct, recent developments serve as a useful reminder when it comes to gauging which way share prices are headed, don't believe everything you hear!
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.
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