Economists had expected [subscription required] a Q3 2007 account deficit of about $184 billion. The Q3 2007 current account stat represents the smallest account deficit as a percent of the U.S. economy since Q1 2004.
The Q3 2007 account deficit was roughly 5.1% of U.S. GDP using a closing Sept. 2007 GDP of $13.967 trillion. That's down from 5.5% of GDP using a closing June 2007 GDP of $13.769 trillion.
Small victory
In Q3 2007, imports of goods rose to $497.6 billion from $483.6 billion in Q2 2007, but exports of goods rose even more, to $297.9 billion from $279.3 million. Meanwhile, the trade of services rose to a surplus of $26.5 billion from $25.8 billion.
Analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, told BloggingStocks Monday the Q3 current account stat represents a modest positive for the U.S. economy.
"It's a small victory, in that the current account is declining, but it's nothing to write home about. We need to see quarter after quarter of rising exports and low import gains to really have an impact on the [U.S.] economy," Bauer said. "The weaker dollar is making U.S. goods more-attractive abroad, that's helping to narrow the gap, and this trend should continue in 2008.
Gap seen narrowing
Bauer said he expects the U.S.'s current account deficit "to drop below 5% of GDP in 2008," assuming an increase in demand from China and other emerging market nations, a slight pull-back in U.S. consumer spending, and a moderation in oil prices.
"China's and India's middle class consumer categories continue to grow and that increased disposable income should yield more purchases of U.S. goods and services," Bauer said. "And if oil moderates in 2008 to about $80 per barrel, which many think it will, that will help on the U.S.'s import side." Oil was down $1.45 to $89.82 in Monday afternoon trading
Economists and analysts generally view a sustained current account surplus as a sign of an economy's strength, as it usually is driven by competitive exports and modest imports. Conversely, a sustained current account deficit, especially if it is large, is generally interpreted as a sign of economic weakness, usually created by inadequate export sales and/or overconsumption.










