Wheat prices pushed above $10 per bushel Monday, as dry weather threatened crops in Argentina, adding to concerns regarding a potential wheat shortage, Bloomberg News reported Monday.The bullish move in wheat sent other grains and oilseeds higher. Argentina, now experiencing summer, is a key supply of wheat for bread, pasta and livestock feed.
The price of wheat has more than doubled in the past year, with wheat climbing another 30 cents to $10.03 per bushel Monday morning. Soybeans gained 17 cents to $11.93 per bushel. Corn rose 5 cents to $4.43 per bushel.
Global growth
Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Monday that wheat's climb is part of a global trend of higher commodity prices, driven by emerging market economic growth.
"We've got solid wheat demand. As these emerging market economies develop, they're going to consume more wheat and food stuffs, that's undeniable, and its been forcing up the price of all food stuff commodities," Affinito said. "This will force up the price of cereals, pastas and other foods in the United States, and of course will increase U.S. inflation."
Affinito added that he now expects 2008 U.S. CPI inflation of 2.7-3.0%, if there is not a substantial, sustained pull-back in oil prices.
$13 wheat?
Affinito said wheat could hit $13 per bushel in 2008, and he expects cereal companies -- many of which have already increased prices -- to compensate with another round of price hikes.
"They have to increase prices to protect their margins," Affinito said. "It may result in some consumers switching to generic brands, or switching to other breakfast options, especially if a box of cereal rises above $7. But the cereal companies have no other choice."
For a gallery of all the grocery prices that might be affected, see WalletPop.
2008 wheat supply
Affinito added that if wheat stays above $10 per bushel, he expects the sector to see new growers enter the market, causing increased production, to a degree.
"Wheat's high price will encourage more growers -- that's a basic economic law -- and that will help, somewhat. But the problem is complicated by Russia's capping its grain exports at 12.5 million tons per year," Affinito said. "Eventually, large wheat growers like the United States and Canada will compensate, but strong demand will keep prices high in 2008."
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Reader Comments (Page 4 of 4)
12-19-2007 @ 6:49PM
Jon said...
The author clearly does NOT understand how the cost of wheat will impact the price of cereal. He fails to realize how many boxes of cereal can be made from just 1 bushel of wheat.
Think of a bushel of wheat as about the same as what would fit into a 5 gallon bucket. Now grab your box of cereal, take the inner bag out of the box, and place it inside a 5 gallon bucket. That bag may not even cover the bottom of the bucket. This demonstrates what a small portion of the cost of cereal really comes from the cost of wheat.
The price of cereal and most other foods is a result of manufacturing, distribution, and retailing, and the associated profit each of those makes during the process. Very little change in retail price would result from the increased price of wheat.
If the author wants to 'play the stock market' on cereal, he could simply buy extra boxes now and put them in storage for use later in 2008 or 2009. Most cereal on the retail shelf today will have a 2008 or 2009 expiration date. Then he can 'earn money' when he uses the lower cost cereal while most others are paying the higher retail price.
Maybe he can use the earnings to take a class and learn more about how food prices really work!
12-19-2007 @ 7:01PM
Bill said...
Fruit, fruit juices, yogurt, eggs, bacon, who needs cereal for breakfast. Stop eating wheat, corn and oat cereals for a couple of months and demand goes down along with prices. American people are adaptable and should start using that gift a little more.
12-19-2007 @ 7:02PM
BUBBA said...
WHO CARES? PRETTY SOON EVERYONE WILL BE EATIN SOUTHERN FOOD FOR BREAKFAST. INVEST YOUR MONEY IN "GRITS" EEEE HAAAAA
12-19-2007 @ 7:03PM
Kathy said...
Why are they getting wheat from Argentina? Buy American and keep USA working!
12-19-2007 @ 7:13PM
db025 said...
Ethanol is already a failure. Brazil may have cleaner gas, but the government of Mexico enacted a law effected Jan 1, 2007 capping the price manufactures may charge for tortillas. The number one staple food of the diet of Mexico and most Central and South American diets is in such short supply because corn for fuel pays better than corn for food.
12-19-2007 @ 7:20PM
K.S. said...
We need to buy our wheat from AMERICAN farmers, thank you! Why do we need to import from Argentina? Why can't we support our own farmers? I would rather pay more if I knew it was keeping our own farmers from going bankrupt. Good grief. I know we have to import/export, but gee whiz, we need to support our own people. I personally shop at local farmer's markets and fruit stands at the side of the road, so that I can get the produce FARM FRESH. Sure, I pay a little more, but I know they need the money and I' rather give it to them and know where it came from. I could go on & on (but I won't!). Let's support our LOCAL FARMERS!!!!
12-19-2007 @ 7:25PM
LJ said...
What is the problem? We could just go back to growing our own crops and stop buying them from other countries. Keep our US dollars at home.
12-19-2007 @ 7:27PM
Mesa said...
For cryin out loud! Why do we need to be getting our grains from some other country when we have tons of our own? This is totally stupid!
12-19-2007 @ 7:32PM
leigh said...
I dont care- I cant afford the milk to put on
cereal anyway..................
12-19-2007 @ 7:49PM
eskimopie86 said...
they sell cereal at Aldi's and at the dollarstore!
12-19-2007 @ 8:05PM
Gary said...
A large factor in grain prices goes back to our dependence of foreign oil. We have decided that instead of drilling for oil in certain parts of the country we would build ethanol plants. Ethanol plants are being supplied by corn. Therefore the price of corn has gone up and more and more farmers plant it instead of wheat. Chickens eat corn therefore eggs go up. Get the picture.
12-19-2007 @ 8:07PM
mcpogi said...
Great, now the president is responsible for crappy wheat harvests in Argentina. Only an idiot could ever make that equasion. Mom maybe there's some place you could fly off to???
12-19-2007 @ 8:20PM
dwight said...
Us indians here in OHIO live on DEER MEAT and Goose and Duck EGGS. Who cares about the price of GRAINS. Too bad you poor city slickers, maybe the GOV. will feed you. Kmosabe
12-19-2007 @ 8:16PM
Cabbie said...
Corporate America is the problem. If everyone would stop blaming each other and actually look at what is happening then maybe, just maybe, people would be smart consumers. Instead of worrying about buying name brand products, one should actully look for the non brand products and compare. Generic foods taste the same and they are cheaper. Sometimes we can't help that the free market has a hold on the prices, however there is always the so called lobby, people who fight the government for these so called hikes in prices of wheat and oil. The problem is people don't care enough and will buy the name brand products because they want to. People won't change their ideals. Too much greediness on everyones part, not just the government, but the public.
12-19-2007 @ 8:29PM
John said...
You all can thank bush for this and his putting the
squeeze on the middle and lower classes while he
and his 0il Slick buddies in the middle east spin the
barrels on what the price will be this month. And
using up farmland for 'Ethanol' as a enrgy source,
is taking away more acreage from growing food
for the masses, not to mention more starving folks
Not fair sez average joe tax paying citizen !
12-19-2007 @ 8:42PM
ann said...
won't by that
crazy
There are so mant homeless
no med class either rich or poor I have seen strawberries here 6.00 a pkg no one buying that they were all spoiled. what a waste
Horrible
everything is alot
having a car is like paying two rents betwen gas car payment maintaining the car and so on
12-20-2007 @ 1:15AM
bornlukky said...
I can't eat it anyway (as a celiac) nor should one in ten people in
the US that are probably also undiagosed celiacs... if they would
stop putting wheat in everything from 'Corn' Flakes to Ice cream
there would probably be enough for to keep making pasta at a fair
price... Wheat is abused in the US for it's addictive glutens that
are put into everything in most large major brands to make it more
'tasty' and ADDICTIVE. Go gluten free (GF) and help with this wheat
shortage 'crisis'..
12-27-2007 @ 9:36PM
Dan Mowers said...
A bushel of wheat weighs 60 lbs. and yields about 30 boxes of cereal. So at $10.00 a bushel a box of cereal has 33 cents of wheat in it. It used to be 15 cents So when they blame the price of wheat for the high prices they are blowing smoke in your Face.
1-12-2008 @ 12:32PM
Mark said...
it's not the president's fault, it's just the time....the end time.....Revelation 6:6 Then I heard a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!"