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Best Stocks for 2008: Validea sees 'pop' in PepsiCo (PEP)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"What's not to like about PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) these days?" asks John Reese, editor of Validea, who has chosen the stock as his top conservative idea for 2008.

At Validea -- his quantitative advisor service based on following the strategies of leading market gurus such as Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett -- Reese says, "The beverage and snack giant owns several star American brands (including its famed cola, Doritos, Tropicana, Gatorade, and Quaker Oats).

"The company has a foothold in a bunch of emerging markets with booming economies, and its environmentally conscious streak earned it the No.1 ranking on the Environmental Protection Agency's 2007 corporate 'Green Partners' list.

"As if all that's not enough, the firm's exceptional fundamentals garner approval from the 'Guru Strategy' computer models that I base on the approaches of two legendary investors -- Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"While Buffett has long been a fan of Coke's stock, it's Pepsi that appears to be more, well, 'Buffett-like' these days. The company has increased its earnings in eight of the past ten years, growing earnings per share from 95 cents to $3.34 in that time -- just the kind of steady, predictable growth my Buffett-based model likes.

"In addition, Pepsi's average return on equity over the past decade is an exceptional 29%, almost twice my Buffett model's 15% standard. That's a sign that management is doing a good job with shareholders' money, and that the company has established what the Oracle of Omaha refers to as a 'durable competitive advantage' over its peers.

"My Lynch-based model also thinks the time is right to buy Pepsi. Lynch famously used the P/E-to-Growth ratio to find growth stocks selling on the cheap, and at 0.99, Pepsi's P/E/G falls into the range that gets approval from my Lynch-based model. Plus, Pepsi has a debt/equity ratio of just 18%, showing the kind of conservative financing that Lynch valued.

"Moreover, if you're still jittery over the US economy, consider this: My Lynch-based model views Pepsi as a 'stalwart,' the kind of high sales/moderate growth stock that Lynch found offered protection in tough times.

"Indeed, with its incredible name recognition, increasing presence in expanding foreign markets like India and South America, and stellar fundamentals, a few shares of Pepsi should hit the spot in 2008 -- even if the economy lags."

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Last updated: May 16, 2008: 11:01 PM

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