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Does it make sense to buy Research in Motion now?

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Shares of Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) have been on fire, leaving the stock up about 150% on the year, outperforming stocks like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)! But during the last few months, the stock has stagnated. Given the current market conditions, the fundamental perspective and the price action, I believe that buying Research in Motion around these levels makes very good sense.

The company reports earnings after the bell on Thursday and, in my opinion, is going to deliver results that are above Wall Street's estimates as well as guidance that is slightly above the forecasts. If this isn't going to be a 'blowout quarter,' then why would buying the stock into earnings make sense? The answer is simple: I'm convinced that many fund managers are simply not willing to risk owning a big momentum stock like RIM into an earnings report this late in the year. Their yearly performance figures are simply too important for fund marketing to take such a speculative risk. But this creates opportunity for small investors if they are willing to take the risk. If the company does deliver solid numbers, confirming many analyst forecasts and nullifying any doubts surrounding the stock, I think the stock will make a quick move to $115 following the release.

Considering that most BloggingStocks readers shouldn't be taking this position, I'd like to explain why this stock is a buy even after a strong move following the release of earnings. First, I think the stock is going to 'catch-up' to other momentum names and, more importantly, I think fund managers are going to increase their exposure to this name after they receive confirmation that RIM is the smartphone play for 2008 -- a theme that certainly worked in 2007.


Unless Research in Motion is no longer a 'momentum name,' I think it's rational to assume this stock stands to play catch-up with the market's major momentum names, which over the last few months, have produced strong gains. For example, Apple is up about 30% in the last three months and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), a stock I recommended buying here, is up 35%. Given RIM's strong earnings growth and solid technology lineup, I don't think the company is out of the limelight. Contrarily, I think the lack of news flow from the company has left the stock's followers bored and, thus, uninterested. Following a strong earnings report (and subsequently, strong price action), I think many of these long term RIM followers are going to regain their interest in the stock.

Also, as I mentioned before, I think fund managers who would usually be betting on this stock into earnings are simply unwilling to take the risk this late in the year. As you can see from a short term chart, there has been little buying activity in the stock during the last few weeks, which is how I've come to the conclusion that they are taking a 'wait and see' approach with this stock.

Before the negative comments start coming, I'm not advocating this as a valuation or long-term, buy-and-hold play. It's simply a trade based on sentiment (prospective buyers seeing what they would like to see from the earnings report) and probability (all of my research indicates the quarter should come in better than expected) that should work for the next few weeks.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 11:02 PM

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