Now is the time to play LDK Solar


Prior to LDK Solar (NASDAQ: LDK)'s earnings report, I told investors to stay away from the stock because I thought it was highly susceptible to a momentum stock breakdown. Although I made one factual error in the post (I said there was a 12:1 long/short ratio while the real number is around 5:1 because of the CEO's restricted shares), this call turned out to be spot-on and the stock got hammered after several company statements and warnings during the conference call.

But I think now could be an interesting time to become involved in LDK for a short-term trade.

First off, the stock is again-lagging other solar stocks on the market. For example, Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is up 35% in the last five days and First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 12%. Comparably, LDK is down about 30% since the day the company reported earnings. Considering this, I think the stock is ripe for a bounce-back trade.




Additionally, I think the technical perspective is very attractive. During its most recent breakdown, the stock successfully held support at $45 per share. Considering the next resistance point isn't until around $55 per share (highest print during breakdown day as well as a previous area of congestion), I think the stock could be gamed for an easy 8%-10% at the current time. I would keep my stock in around $45 per share and my target price is roughly $54 per share. Risk: $3, Reward: $6.

With the stock showing strong momentum Monday (up almost 8%), I think a bounce-back rally is rather feasible. With established and tested support to use as your stop and the next logical resistance point more than 10% away, I think the risk/reward of 2:1 in this stock is very attractive.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 12:24 PM

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