But I think now could be an interesting time to become involved in LDK for a short-term trade.
First off, the stock is again-lagging other solar stocks on the market. For example, Solarfun Power (NASDAQ: SOLF) is up 35% in the last five days and First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 12%. Comparably, LDK is down about 30% since the day the company reported earnings. Considering this, I think the stock is ripe for a bounce-back trade.

Additionally, I think the technical perspective is very attractive. During its most recent breakdown, the stock successfully held support at $45 per share. Considering the next resistance point isn't until around $55 per share (highest print during breakdown day as well as a previous area of congestion), I think the stock could be gamed for an easy 8%-10% at the current time. I would keep my stock in around $45 per share and my target price is roughly $54 per share. Risk: $3, Reward: $6.
With the stock showing strong momentum Monday (up almost 8%), I think a bounce-back rally is rather feasible. With established and tested support to use as your stop and the next logical resistance point more than 10% away, I think the risk/reward of 2:1 in this stock is very attractive.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-26-2007 @ 10:46AM
Jay Ghosh said...
We now begin to see that Forbes, and some other news agencies are flashing the news that the reason the LDK dropped on Dec20 is their concern on profit margins because of higher polysilicon cost !!! And LDK dropped 25 points !!! But other companies which will face similar problem (actually other companies might face worse predicament, if a problem happens, because unlike LDK, they are not building their own polysilicon plant) were not affected as much :
JASO dropped about 3%
SPWR dropped 1.5%
SOLF dropped 0%
TSL dropped 3%
STP dropped 0% and
LDK dropped 35% !! -the company which probably has the best string of new contracts from a global customer base !
But we know the inner story which you won't find on the headlines.
So, please keep digging for the truth . Happy holidays !
12-26-2007 @ 3:44PM
phil said...
Something smelly with Kevin Kelly....
Funny how LDK took a nose dive the second your story hit the Internet just before it's earnings on the 19th.... Then a downgrade from Piper Jaffray? and now you're telling everyone to buy??? You should do everyone a favor and keep your comments to yourself!
12-26-2007 @ 5:48PM
Tommy Nguyen said...
This guy "Kevin Kelly" should be investigated by SEC because of his long/short ratio error. He manipulated stock badly causing it dropped from $70 to $45. And now, he is recommending this stock. He is one of the worst unethical analysts and shorters I've ever seen in my entire life. He may have bought some share once it dropped to $45 and now trying to pump it up for profit.
12-27-2007 @ 12:11AM
Rob Anstey said...
"But in the long term, I'd steer clear of this stock, short squeeze or no short squeeze, simply because it's too easy to get burned in these fast movers."
So what do you consider long term?? You said 'stay away long term' no more than 10 days ago??
Then you said on the 19th:
"the company appears to be signing long term contracts at the current market rate. This is a lose-lose proposition. If the solar sector remains hot, the company will miss out on much of the prosperity because of these recent contracts. Contrary, if the solar sector turns around, the company is making more than competition; well, there goes the solar euphoria."
This is wrong on a number of levels, first off these are 10 year contracts, the price of silicon will drop over the next ten years as producers of silicon ramp up production to take advantage of high margins, and solar cell producers become more efficient with their silicon requirements. This is the same as every other semiconductor product cycle. Especially since they will start making their own silicon(much higher margins) they will have selling prices setup and have stable predictable margins, which investors are fond of. This isn't about euphoria, this company's earnings and revenue growth is amazing and they are trading at a fraction of First Solar's P/E multiple. This is manipulation; plain and simple, if you were honest like others were and said "Market Markers and the like are going to force this stock down in the short term and then it will bounce back after the option expiry at the $45 level because the fundamentals are far too strong to stay down there" then I would respect you.
Instead I see an image of your selling at 70+, shorting, buying back your shorts and going long at 45 and then lying to us why you are doing what you are doing... I have no respect for your false reasons that have tried to hide your true purpose, I made money just as you did, but I told the truth cause I couldn't stop what went down. No reason to fight a wave when you can ride it.
12-27-2007 @ 12:11AM
ldkstockholder said...
Hey K,
Do us all a favor and stop writing your crap...
ldkstockholder
12-27-2007 @ 12:12AM
Kevin Kelly said...
Sure,
As of now, I'm done writing about LDK and probably BloggingStocks.
12-27-2007 @ 6:48AM
wallstreetmonkey said...
Wow, good call Kelly. Are you bi-polar?
Hey everyone buy, I got in after the stock crashed for no aparent reason....
Im starting to hate all wall street hacks.
Ill add you to my hater list with Jim Cramer.