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Apple's new price target: $300

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been a truly fun company and stock to watch and write about during the course of 2007. Not a bad name to own either. I have probably written a dozen posts for BloggingStocks about Apple, and I have raised my price target five or six times this past year. I think I started out at $85, went to $125, then $150, and so on. I'll make it easy -- for year end 2008, the new price target is $300.

Seems so simple, but let me explain why.

Apple's story is actually stronger today at $200 than when it was at $100. Why? Apple is experiencing massive momentum in all business segments AND it's still early in all its product cycles. This is the amazing part and I must repeat -- IT IS STILL EARLY IN ALL PRODUCT CYCLES.

The December 31 quarter, ending in four short days, will be another blow-out quarter. The estimates call for $9.3 billion in revenue with earnings per share of $1.50 or so. Apple is going to beat these numbers and once again forward estimates are going to go up. Right now I have September 30, 2008 fiscal year estimates at revenues of $31 billion and earnings per share at $5.25; fiscal year 2009, revenues at $38.5 billion and earnings at $6.35 per share.

Numbers are conservative and going higher and here's why. The iPod will be blow away estimates again, and this is the most mature product set in the Apple portfolio. Installed base after the December quarter will be over 120 million total units sold. It is on its fifth iteration and the penetrable market is only at about 7-8%.

The iPhone is JUST beginning and remember this is a global story. iPhone numbers by year end will exceed 20 million units sold. Analysts estimates run right now between 12-14 million units sold by year end 2008. Remember, Apple also gets a piece of the carrier contract with each iPhone sold -- in the US, it's AT&T (NYSE: T). Europe and Asia are just getting started and of course there is still China and South America yet to announce. iPhone is a revolution, not just a product. On June 28, 2007, Apple was not in the cell phone industry. On June 29, 2007, Apple became a feared major player.

The new Mac with the new Leopard operating system is taking the PC world by storm. In the September quarter, Apple sold 2.116 million units, almost 400,000 more than anyone anticipated. That is also just starting. The Mac is taking market share and will continue to do so all through 2008 and beyond.

Apple's operating margins have been running at about 17% and most Street analysts have them settling at 15% or so. Wrong. Apple has the component gig down pat: they are sharks on component pricing and the operating margins will actually hang around 18-20%, which for a hardware maker is absolutely stunning. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) would kill for 6-7% operating margins.

The Apple retail stores, 197 strong, average over $4400 of revenues per selling square foot, the highest of any American retailer. That was the 2006 sales per square foot number and that was before the iPhone or the new Mac. I think those numbers are going higher.

So let's cut to the chase and set the new price target for Apple. I believe the September 2009 earnings number, now at $6.35 per share, will actually be over $7. At a 45 PE multiple, fully justified by operating margins, market dominance and early product life cycles, this puts the price target at $300 by year end 2008.

[Disclosure: At publication time, Georges Yared owns Apple stock.]

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research and the author of Stop Losing Money Today

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 10:48 AM

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