My eight stock picks for 2008 will not include one of my favorites, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) because of recent appreciation in the stock price. Since I am basing my picks on the December 28 close, in two days, it just looks too pricey. The company is not only the leader in producing patented robotic surgical systems; it is the only game in town.
Intuitive Surgical was a strong candidate at $280 to $290, about 20% off it's high, but not at Wednesday's closing price of $335.24. It has a trailing P/E of 109 and a forward P/E of 77 if you believe projections, and I do since ISRG is constantly beating them. However, this stock has a 52-week low of $86.20 and a high of $359.59. That's very high and a 400% bounce has to leave even Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) enthusiasts astonished.
I have written favorably about ISRG in the past 22 months, so perhaps some of my readers have shared in the gains. It is one of the few stocks I have mentioned that does not pay a dividend, but it has beat all estimates every year since I bought it, and is likely to do so again (albeit with fits and starts). It has hardly penetrated its potential market, and already it has grown into a $12 billion company.
At this point, I would definitely put ISRG on my watch list, and perhaps like many volatile stocks, there would be an opportunity to own it at a lower price.
Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG in several portfolios.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-27-2007 @ 6:38PM
keith said...
This stock is still in the first inning of a long growth period. It is first entering the European and Asian markets (i.e., China). It is a natural monoploy, not only manufacturing the Da Vinci system, but also servicing and parts replacement. At this point, they have a huge head start, and it is highly unlikely that another company could come in and take market share. This stock is a keeper!
12-28-2007 @ 8:16AM
Sheldon L said...
Keith,
Your are correct ISRG is a keeper. I cannot dispute your comments only that the buy in point is important and in the last 60 days you could have watched it go from $350 to $282 back to $335.
Would you rather pay $285 or $350 or somewhere in between. I never have suggested anyone sell or trade this stock. I think it is a buy under $300 and todays price does not allow inclusion in the 8 for 2008.
Happy New Year
12-28-2007 @ 8:18PM
keith said...
A great company is a great company. If the stock split 5:1, would it be a buy at $45.? In case you are interested, Dr. Moll (the founder of ISRG) is also the founder of HNSN, which also is a great growth story, with only one competitor. There is also ARAY that might interest you as well.
12-28-2007 @ 2:16PM
Sheldon L said...
A 5:1 split from $325 is $65. The split would not affect any of the metrics. They would all remain the same. I would split my buy-in to match, so I would looking to get in between $55 - $60.
1-02-2008 @ 4:20PM
jack menefee said...
I bought ISRG at 72 after I showed it at my investment club, which they bought 100 shares
at 46. Wished I had bought it when I convinced them to buy it.
1-02-2008 @ 6:07PM
kjr101050 said...
Bottom line....a great stock to own long term, regardless of the fluctuation in price. Granted, there will be alot of volatility, but if one believes in the future of robotic surgery, then this stock is the leader and will continue to grow and gain market share for many years to come.