In a column in Forbes Magazine, National Editor Robert Lenzner poses, arguably, the most pressing question for 2008: Is a recession ahead? He then offers barometers that may provide insight on the condition of the world's largest economy.

Modest job creation, manufacturing figures well below their June 2007 high, the housing slump, falling consumer expectations, and decelerating earnings growth are the indicators that suggest a recession may be ahead.

Meanwhile, investor expectations are a mixed bag -- neither bullish nor bearish, but flat -- which makes the argument that investors aren't convinced a recession is ahead because they can't see it.

Economic Analysis: The Forbes review didn't place enough emphasis on two variables that may very well tip the scales, in either direction, regarding a recession in 2008: oil prices and the market's ability to absorb credit market write-offs and defaults. The U.S. economy is likely to continue to expand if gasoline prices retreat below $3 per gallon this year, as opposed to rising above $4; the latter would take a great deal of the wind out of the sails of consumer spending. Similarly, modest additional subprime mortgage / credit defaults are likely to be absorbed by the market; a large body of defaults would pose a more-formidable hurdle.