Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

To quote one of my college professors (with thick Chicago accent) "Ya pays yer nickle 'n ya takes ya bes' shot." This year I wrote over 200 stories and reviewed even more stocks. Going over all of this material I came up with the ones listed here as my four best and four worst of the year.

If you would have acquired these eight stocks you would be up 21.79%, about double the NASDAQ, triple the DJIA and 550% over the S&P 500. Had I followed the advice of some of my more astute readers or been more cynical about the forthrightness and leadership in the financial sector, I would have had a really smashing year. As it was, I cannot complain. I think this coming year I will have to analyze some of the feedback even more closely than I have in the past -- keep those comments coming!

Here are the results of the indices from December 28, 2006 through December 27, 2007 for comparison:

The worst stocks were primarily in the financial sector, and I stepped in it with both feet.

• Not only did I have too much faith in the managers, but I went as far as to post the dubious title of "once in a lifetime" in the case of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB). Not one to hide from my mistakes, one of my kids reminded me that the title is still fitting, just not as I meant it -- I get it everywhere -- there is no escaping my blunder. Chasing Value: IndyMac Bancorp - once in a lifetime in May recommended IMB at $30.09. IMB closed Thursday at $6.35 for a 78.9% loss. Adding the yield of 6.3% reduces the loss to -72.6%.

• A mistake in judgment made by many was the support of Washington Mutual - WaMu (NYSE: WM) that I had mentioned many times as a safe haven. While many on Wall Street find safety in numbers, I do not. It's my mistake -- I own it just the same in a group or by myself -- it's my money! I do not get to pass the hat around the Street and have no boss to answer too. Chasing Value: Washington Mutual - WaMu recommended WaMu at $39.00 in April. WM closed Thursday at $13.54 for a 65.3% loss. Adding the yield of 4.5% reduces the loss to -63.8%.

• The folks at Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) should feel very, very badly about their stupid trades in various CDOs and hedge funds. They are supposed to be the "smart money" on The Street and not make these type of mistakes. I was not very smart for believing that, and took the hit in our newest portfolio. Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing in April recommended BSC at $148.00. Shares of Bear Stearns closed Thursday at $88.25 for a 40.4% loss. Adding the yield of 1.8% reduces the loss to -38.6%.

• Bank Popular (NYSE: BPOP) turned out to be very UN-popular with investors. Although this one has taken a big hit and it does have some of the questionable types of loans on its books, it also fell with the sector and may be worth more than the stock price would indicate. Chasing Value: Bank Popular (BPOP) should be very popular in June recommended BPOP at $17.00. Shares closed Thursday at $10.58, for a 37.8% loss. Adding the yield of 5.5% reduces the loss to -32.3%.

There were a few other bad picks, but those will be highlighted elsewhere. My good calls have exceeded the bad by almost 2:1 this year and you can check it out for yourself, or find potential opportunities and verify my track record in the Chasing Value or Serious Money sections.

Happy New Year & Best of Luck in 2008!

DISCLOSURE: At the time of this post I owned or control shares of all eight of these stocks -- I eat my own cooking.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.