2008 market forecast: Recession fears unfounded

With Wall Street analysts forecasting where the market will be 12 months from now, I figured I would take a crack as well. As an overview, I expect market volatility to continue throughout the first quarter and mid-way through the second as well. Then it will be clear to all that the U.S. never was in a recession, we will start hearing companies talk about how well their businesses are doing, and analysts will re-work their estimates higher. The second half of the year should be very strong for markets with the potential caveat of some kind of unexpected result in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.

I think that the Dow will end the year at 14,350. The S&P 500 will be at 1,630, a nice gain of over 11%. The Nasdaq is the interesting index to predict. In '07, the Nasdaq finished up a drop under 10%, but much of that gain came from just three stocks, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). With the exception of RIMM, I have a hard time believing that Apple and Google will repeat their '07 performances. That being said, I do think that we will have more strength in the broader market so look for the Nasdaq to be at 3,025 in a year.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position long or short in any stock mentioned as of 1/1/08.