This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.
If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.
The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.
Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.
Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.
During November the Dow Jones Industrial Average was within striking distance of its all-time high of above 14,000, reached late last July. However, December proved treacherous and it was just not meant to be. One of my colleagues had predicted the DJIA would reach 15,000 this year -- but alas, that proved overly optimistic to say the least with oil, gold, and food going up drastically while the dollar, housing, and financials got smashed!
Summary of Results:
- Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), has been trading in a $50 dollar range over the last month or so, but ended on a strong note in December. It is still a favorite on Wall Street with few investors pausing to take a breath. GOOG closed at $707.74, for a solid +51.49% gain through the 12 months of the year for the top spot.
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Jim Cramer's average return on his nine picks was 19.44% over the 12 months, beating the Standard & Poor's index, the DJIA, and the NASDAQ. Adding the dividend portion of 0.66%, brings Cramer's gain to +20.1%. Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was his best pick all year. The new products and software launches, combined with the current products assured that 2007 was another one for Apple's record books.
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None of the indices made a strong showing this year, with the NASDAQ having the best of it and S&P barely waking up. The overall average of the three indices was +6.95%. Adding the the dividend yield of 1.8% brings the total gain to +8.75%, a notable return on investment, beating out most fixed income securities.
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My picks went down considerably in December, and throughout the full year only made a paltry +2.74% gain. Adding the dividend portion of 2.89% brings the total return to +5.63%, narrowly beating the S&P but falling behind the indices average for the year. This thoroughly unimpressive showing would hardly make the effort worth while. Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been the leader most of the year and that is how it ended up. Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX) finished the year as one of my most disappointing holdings.
I have noted that dividends have been added to the results and that this is one of the criteria I use in my stock picks. This year, as always there were many lessons to be learned. To my amazement and irony the portion of my total gain attributable to the dividends was greater than the stock appreciation.
Two of my picks were often mentioned as buyout candidates, but the rhetoric has died down considerably until this month when The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) finally had some news: The Dow Chemical Company and Petrochemical Industries Company of Kuwait Announce Global Petrochemicals Joint Venture. Not exactly the buyout Wall Street may have been banking on and seems to have helped deflate the stock at least temporarily. The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) received the most negative sentiment all year, and the crushed housing market is keeping it from rebounding despite what many market watchers see as a deeply discounted turnaround play, and I would agree. I am even considering Home Depot again for next year.
The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and 12 month returns for the seven stocks I recommended, plus the addition of Spectra Energy Corp. (NYSE: SE) that was spun out of Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK). Among Cramer's picks, Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), which was spun out of Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO), is included in the calculations.
- The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW): $40.02 is up to $40.27 (+0.6%) 3.54% yield
- Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE: DUK): $33.02 (incl. Spectra Energy Corp. (NYSE: SE)) is up. Dividend only $33.09 (0.0%) 4.31% yield
- The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD): $39.73 is down to $26.27 (-33.88%) 2.31% yield
- Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP): $36 is up to $41.43 (+15.08%) 3.62% yield
- PetroChina Company Limited ADR (NYSE: PTR): $142.12 is up to $178.90 (+25.88%) 4.5% yield
- Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX): $22.00 is down to $16.67 (-24.23%) 1.1% yield
- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO): $51.61 is up to $70.05 (+35.73%) 0.84% yield
The following index comparisons are also from December 28, 2006:
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is up to 13,359.61 (+6.86%)
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NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is up to 2,676.79 (+10.36%)
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Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,424.73 is up to 1,476.37 (+3.62%)
The Cramer Speculative Stocks for 2007:
1) Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT): $5.66 is down to $3.05 (-46.11%) No dividend
2) Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD): $5.49 is down to $2.86 (-47.91%) No dividend
3) Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT): $12.01 is up to $22.93. (+90.92%) No dividend
The Cramer Growth Picks are:
1) New York Stock Exchange Group (NYSE: NYX): $97.51 down to $87.15 (-10.62%) No dividend
2) Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL): $80.87 up to $198.57 (+145.54%) No dividend
3) Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO): $27.42 up to $27.79 (+1.35%) No dividend
The Cramer Value Picks are:
1) Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO): $86.23 up to $76.23 (+Kraft at .692024 x $32.93 = $22.79) to $99.02 (+14.83%) 4.12%yield
2) Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS): $200.80 up to $211.95 (+5.55%) 0.72% yield
3) Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL): $31.26 up to $37.94 (+21.37%) .97% yield
The New Powerhouse: Google
Google had an amazing year -- again! After twelve months of tracking Google, it has grown into one of the largest capitalized companies in the world, now exceeding $200 billion, and remains of broad interest to the investing public and internet users alike. Google closed December 28, 2006 at $462.56, rose in January, then traded downward for a few months before rising again following the overall market. But in the last few months it has been hot until finally settling down for year at $707.74, for a solid gain of $238.18 per share for a championship gain of +51.49%. Google does not pay a dividend.
In Closing
It has been an interesting process, and tedious to track at times. For most of the year Apple has lead the way, with Google, and Valero shining brightly as well.
Many people including me at times have made fun of Cramer's television antics. I have read all kinds of stories about Cramer not having a very good over all record, not being consistent, and even outright contradicting himself in short order. Nevertheless, If you would have bought into his 9 picks in equal dollar amounts last December you would have done great. You just would have had a scary ride some of the way. This year, with these picks, which I have methodically tracked, he did better than most and better than I did.
My own biggest frustration and surprise out of the entire year long story is Time Warner our parent company. I can rationalize Home Depot not doing well in a market where housing has been slammed, but what can I say about TWX? During the year I said plenty: Time Warner: No catalyst or no leadership? Some comparisons. I did not know if TWX would have a fantastic year but Idid envision a scenario that put it a few dollars higher than it started. To finish the year down almost 25% is shocking!
In 2008 I will be outlining another group of stocks that hopefully are more consistent. It seems that was something that this year the market was not. I will also post an abbreviated version of this story after the first quarter. I tend to buy and hold and these stocks may prove better in 2008 than 2007 -- thank for reading my rants!
Have a peaceful, healthy and prosperous new year!
Disclosure: I own shares of DOW, DUK, HNP, PTR, SE, TWX, and VLO.
To find more potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-01-2008 @ 5:29PM
Mr. noitall said...
Congratulations on an over-all good year, Sheldon. Some of your other picks did quite well. Happy New Year. I'm looking forward to seeing your 8 for 2008.
1-02-2008 @ 10:09AM
Arnie said...
OK Mr. Cramer! So I bought TWX also and lost my butt as you say you lost yours on the stock.
Do we follow the text books admontions of selling losers and sell at significant loss or hang in there?
1-02-2008 @ 5:25PM
BSchweik said...
You suggested we look at DPHIQ on the pick sheet. You caution that this is highly speculative. The price went from $2.20 to 10 cents. Wow what a trip. Talk about losing your but.
[blogger note: this guy must be lost because this writer has never recommended any pink sheet / penny stocks, Sheldon]
1-02-2008 @ 6:14PM
Bignumone said...
Kind of a crock, don't you think?
My brother-in-law is a Cramer wonk as well. I was getting a call from him about every two weeks. Cramer says SELL, it won't go any higher. Cramer says BUY! It is a STEAL! Cramer says SELL, their market cap is too high. Cramer says there is no better time to BUY AAPL! Cramer says if you stay with AAPL you are nuts!
If I had listened to Cramer, I would have sold at 75, 85, and 98! The pestering stopped over 100!
I guess if I changed my mind every second Friday, I could point to when I was right and have a cult following as well.
BTW, I am up over 50% on my portfolio for the year. Two bad picks are driving my average down.