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How to play gold in 2008

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A popular play for 2008 is the precious metal Gold. Simply put, investors flee to gold in times of uncertainty. With doubts about the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. economy, and many other fears, gold is becoming a popular idea amongst many fund managers.

The momentum is certainly behind gold. As you can see from the chart on the right, gold just hit a fresh high and has been in an uptrend since late 2006. The commodity began it's strong move with a perfect breakout in mid-2007 during which the metal has run more than 100 points.

The future of gold is certainly hard to call but I believe the commodity should show a positive return in 2008 as the U.S. economy should weaken and doubts about the dollar (and other currencies) remain.

How should you play gold? Rather than buying the commodity, you have two choices: an ETF or a mining company. While the ETF is less risky, it also stands to return less, in my opinion.

The ETF play is streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an ETF intended to mimic the price action of the underlying commodity contract. Each share is representative 1/10 of an ounce of gold. This is perfect for most people who would like to bet on gold or hedge their portfolio.

However, I think a more interesting play is the miner Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), a stock that broke to a new 52-week high today. Because of its incredible technical strength, especially recently, I believe this stock should mimic gold's returns with higher beta. In other words, I think a 1% risk in gold will result in a rise greater than 1% in this miner's stock. Accordingly, I believe if gold is up 10% on the year, this miner could be up 20% or more. However, if gold is down on the year, I think Barrick will be down even more. In other words, Barrick should serve as a leveraged bet on gold's price with the added upside of a very attractive chart.

Gold could be prime for another strong year with many concerns about the economy plaguing many investors' minds. As a retail investor, you have two interesting ways to play a higher gold price: an ETF that mimics the price of the commodity and a mining stock that should serve as an interesting leveraged bet on the commodity.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 08:11 AM

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