Iowa to Wall Street: Drop dead

Much as I would like to ignore them, there is no escaping the Iowa caucuses. Every pundit within 1,000 miles of Des Moines is weighing in on their meaning, or lack thereof. But there is one message coming loud and clear from the campaign from average voters that will continue to be heard, regardless who wins the hearts and minds of Dubuque: We're scared.

Consider that consumer confidence ended the year on a negative note. Oil prices are at or about to pass $100. The real estate market continues to scrape along the bottom. People are unhappy about the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are unhappy with president. They are unhappy with the Democratic-led Congress. All of this crankiness is a great boon for the Democrats and a potential problem for Wall Street.

John Edwards, perhaps the most anti-corporate candidate, is in a statistical tie with fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Anti-tax zealot Ron Paul continues to break fund-raising records even though he stands no chance of winning the Republican nomination. Republican Mitt Romney, who made his fortune in private equity and would presumably be Wall Street's friend, continues to struggle against economic populist Mike Huckabee. Rudy Giuliani, another potential Wall Street friend, is avoiding Iowa and New Hampshire because he's probably going to get beaten badly there.

As the election heats up, so will the anti-corporate rhetoric. Remember that many voters don't know the difference between a stock and a bond, and think 401 is a type of Special K. Fear, uncertainty and doubt will play a large role in determining the next president, and that's why the markets are going to remain volatile for quite some time, regardless of how many times the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.