Demographic, education trends are in Hologic's (HOLX) favor

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one look for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one sector, and in this category Hologic is worth an evaluation.

Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) manufactures mammography tests/products, workstations, and detection systems, as well as cervical cancer screening systems, among other health care service business lines.

Analysts see solid-to-robust growth for HOLX on favorable demographic trends and increased health education awareness to undergo regular, as-required tests for the conditions HOLX screens. Margins remain solid in both the breast cancer and cervical cancer detection areas, with promising opportunities to increase market share. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for HOLX are $1.69/$2.25.

The risks: Negative changes to Medicare and/or private insurer reimbursement rates would hurt HOLX's results, if clinics consequently reduce tests with machines/devices manufactured by HOLX. Analysts also are monitoring intensifying competition across HOLX's revenue streams.

The First Call mean rating for HOLX is: Buy. [13 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $73.00. [high: $77, low: $65.]

Stock Analysis: Hologic is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from HOLX's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $42.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.