Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee triumphed in the Iowa caucuses last night. They won because they incited the passions of their supporters -- bringing record numbers to the 2,000 caucus locations throughout Iowa. According to the New York Times, a record number of Democrats turned out to caucus - more than 239,000 -- compared with fewer than 125,000 in 2004. By contrast, 108,000 Republicans caucused on Thursday.
Both parties had plenty about which to be passionate. Obama's supporters are a coalition of young people, women, and independents who are stirred by Obama's charisma and message of change to reject four more years of the Clintons. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, was backed by evangelical Christians who were inspired to resist Mormon Mitt Romney and his $10 million in campaign spending. Polls of Republicans entering the caucus sites found that 60% described themselves as evangelical who intended to vote for Huckabee.
How will all this passion affect Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries? Will Obama's victory in Iowa help him chip away at Hillary Clinton's formidable lead in the polls? Will Mitt Romney, who owns a home in New Hampshire, prevail over John McCain? Reuters reports on polls -- taken before the caucus results were announced -- that Clinton and McCain lead there.
Despite all the hype leading up to Iowa, success there is not a predictor of future outcomes. But passion will probably play a pivotal role. Its winds are filling the sails of Obama and Huckabee.
If Obama can maintain it across the country, he could break new political ground for a country in search of change. It remains to be seen whether Huckabee, as the evangelicals' choice, can pull in enough voters to prevail in the Republican primaries ahead without widening his base of support.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-04-2008 @ 4:15PM
michael schneider said...
I attended a caucus yesterday-- small group of mostly college students. There was some excitement about Huckabee actually-- though Guilianni won in that precinct and a number tied for 2nd 9including John McCain). A student speaking for John McCain did very well on his behalf-- some of the others read off campaign sheets. My contribution was asking the Ron Paul speaker what Ron Paul's delivering of 4,000 babies had to do with anything. (I can just see the President leaving the State of the Union early to deliver some babies). There was huge huge enthusiasm out here for Barack Obama.