A few days behind schedule, but here is my list of eight stocks. Included in the list there are two holdovers from the 2007 list of seven stocks. I do not see any value in creating an entirely new list when I have done well over the years riding the winners. This is particularly true if the reasons you bought the stock in the first place remain valid.
These eight picks for the year will be tracked monthly with updated results. The initial share prices are from December 28, 2007. They are focused on defense, energy, food, gold, metals, mining, oil, power, and every one pays a dividends. The following are my "Quick Takes" in alphabetical order with links to the complete stories.
Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is a world-class player in precious metals, diamonds, and commodities, which are all growing in demand. When the world economy is booming, all of its mining products are sought after, and when the market runs scared, gold goes up. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and is trading almost 25% off its 52-week high. For full story: Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is the world leader in the production of soybean products and still growing at a rapid rate. While sporting a P/E ratio of 19, which is low for a growth stock, it also has a tiny P/S ratio of 0.33. Although it jumped 70% last year, that may be just the beginning. It's my food story selection from Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world. All three should be on your watch list. I had to split hairs to choose only one. I backed away from ADM because there is a slight chance that the ethanol business could slip if oil prices do. Potash had the highest percentage increase and also has a scary P/E and P/S. For full story Chasing Value: Bunge Limited (BG) in name only. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for BG was $119.03.
Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) is one of my favorite stocks on planet earth, and I must have said so at least once a month. I even wrote a story titled Volatile Markets: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years. It is one of the holdovers from last year. It is not the bargain it was when I bought in at $26.50, but at the current price just under $40 per share it's 30% off it's high and it still pays a 3.5% yield. For full story: Chasing Value: Huaneng Power still the one in China. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for HNP was $41.75.
Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) is a "puny" version of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) but is no less well managed and has produced significant shareholder equity over the past three decades. It owns interests in oil drilling, insurance, gas pipelines, and hotels. It has announced that it plans to spin-off Lorillard, the makers of Newport brand cigarettes. When everyone on Wall Street is scrambling for cover this year, I expect the Tisch family to be cherry picking and bargain hunting. For full story: Chasing Value: Loews Corp. has all the right pieces. Closed on December 28, 2007, at $49.35.
Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) is a REIT paying about a 22% yield. It does not own real estate, instead it holds loans on nonresidential properties. NCT is on record to fully fund its dividend and anticipates one billion dollars in loans to be paid off in the coming year. For full story: Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for NCT was $13.08.
Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) The defense sector has beaten the Standard & Poors 500 Index four eight years running through 2007 and I do not see anything stoping this trend in 2008. The basic metrics are sound, with a PEG ratio of 1.13, a P/B of 2.4, and a P/S of 1.3. For full story: Chasing Value: Raytheon in defense of the nation and your portfolio. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for RTN was $61.51.
Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is solid, and resiliant, providing 100,000 products made of carbon, alloy, stainless, and specialty steel, as well as aluminum, brass, copper, and titanium. By being a producer of value-added products and serving more than 125,000 customers it has a very broad global base. Reliance has a low P/E ratio of 8 (TTM) a very low P/S of 0.50 and a great ROE of 25%. For full story: Chasing Value: Reliance Steel & Aluminum adding value globally. On December 28, 2007, RS closed at $54.32 per share.
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is the largest independent oil refiner in North America and looking to increase profit margins in 2008, while any competitors will take eight to ten years to bring a new refinery on line. It was my top pick among 2007's seven, and I am bringing it back for an encore. For full story: Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for VLO was $70.55.
This year's "stalking horse" will be Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B). Note that I will be tracking the 'B' shares, not the more expensive 'A' shares. It was one of the stocks I considered for inclusion in the 8, but it did not make the cut. I did suggest that it be on your watch list: Chasing Value: Scratch Berkshire Hathaway from the 2008 list. It will be interesting to follow it and see how it fares against what is on the list. Last year the stalking horse was Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), and as a portfolio of one beat my picks and most everything else, see: Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks.
There are sure to be some surprises during the year, hopefully to the upside. Newcastle is likely to produce the biggest swings given the uncertainy in the financial and real estate markets, but I think it has the greatest potential to rise as well. I will also be tracking the the indices as I did last year. The following closing numbers will be the starting point.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13,365.87
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NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,674.46
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Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 1,478.49
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.
DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of AAUK, BRK.B, HNP, NCT,and VLO
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-05-2008 @ 5:24PM
Kevin said...
You have a very informative blog and I added your link to my blog roll.
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com
1-05-2008 @ 9:17PM
Mr. noitall said...
AAUK- I like it, I own some shares. As the U.S. continues to de-value the dollar, gold & commodities will continue to rise.
BG, RS, & VLO- Also great businesses to be in right now. I told you a long time ago that we should focus on what people really need. We need food, energy, & other basic commodities. I don't own BG, RS or VLO, but I might buy some time during this year. I expect a big sell off some time during this year. All stocks, even solid companies will be dragged down with the rest of the market. I like these three but I'll wait and see if I can buy in cheaper.
HNP-Again, great business, but the "China Factor" worries me. I, like many others think the Chinese markets are a bubble waiting to pop. Even if HNP is a solid business, I'm afraid that anything associated with China will get hit hard when the China bubble bursts. I would avoid China in 2008.
LTR-Loews, interesting pick, Sheldon. I never gave it much thought. But you're right, the Tisch family have an excellent track record. They seem to always be in the right place at the right time. Again, if I can get in cheaper, I might buy.
NCT- I bought some shares after reading one of your articles on it. I think it's a high risk gamble. So, I wouldn't advise buying more than you're willing to lose.
RTN- I think it's one of the better run defense companies, but I don't really like this sector for 2008. These are bureaucracies/businesses. I'm neutral to slightly negative on this sector.
1-06-2008 @ 8:09AM
Beverly said...
I Like this article. AAUK Sound good. I like dividend paiding stock. RS is O.K. VLO is nice too. I will watch the market. this year maybe I can add one of these stock to my portfolios.