In the case of Japan, Resnick said that can mean higher prices for Japanese cars sold in the United States - - i.e. the potential for lower sales. For export-dependent Japan, that's something the Bank of Japan "has not looked favorably on, historically" and has intervened to support the dollar, he said. Resnick added that he is currently flat, or has no positions, with the dollar/yen pairing.

Japan: exports are key

Some currency analysts argue that the Bank of Japan may tolerate slightly more yen appreciation versus the dollar this time, due to, among other factors, Japan's increased exports within the Asian hemisphere. Conversely, other currency analysts, 'the traditionalists,' argue that the Bank of Japan will not tolerate too much more dollar deterioration versus the yen, arguing that the 'double whammy' of price increases for Japanese autos, combined with lower U.S. consumer confidence, will cause auto sales to plunge.

Resnick tends to side with the traditionalists, arguing that the BOJ may let the yen appreciate slightly more this time, but not much more. The stakes are too high for Japan, he said.

"Japan is not going to sit idly by and watch a depreciating dollar and sluggish U.S. economic growth really hurt their export sales in vehicles, semiconductors and electronics goods," Resnick said. "They'll let the yen appreciate some, but as soon as they sense that the yen's rise threatens their exporters' market share or profits, they'll intervene to support the dollar."