Some pre-market optimism this morning on hopes of a Fed rate cut, made me stop to think whether such cuts help the market. When Alan Greenspan chaired the Fed, investors became convinced he would always bail them out of a jam. This assumption was dubbed the Greenspan put -- meaning that his interest rate policies would create a floor below which the market would not decline.
But his successor Ben Bernanke is creating the opposite expectation -- through his interest rate policies, investors are witnessing a short-term market pop followed by a medium-term market tumble. After a rocky August, Bernanke's first 50 basis point rate cut propelled the Dow up 979 points. But subsequent 25 basis point rate cuts were followed by enormous Dow drops. For example, last October, the Dow fell 571 points, the Fed cut rates 25 basis points but the Dow kept falling -- 541 points.
Here is a time line that tracks recent dropping equity markets, followed by interest rate cuts:
- September 50 basis point cut. In the first week of September 2007, the Dow drops 244 points after a tumultuous August driven in part by subprime concerns -> September 18, 2007, the Fed cuts the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75% -> Hint of rate cut in second week of September causes the Dow to rise 979 points to 14,093 by October 12th.
- October 25 basis point cut. Between October 12 and October 19, 2007, the Dow drops 571 points to 13,522 due in part to concerns about bank asset write-downs -> October 31, 2007 the Fed cuts the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% -> But the market is disappointed with the lower than expected cut and the Dow falls an additional 541 points to 12,981 by November 23rd.
- December 25 basis point cut. Between November 23 and December 7, 2007, the Dow rises 645 points to 13,625 due in part to concerns about a rocky 2008 -> December 12, 2007, the Fed cuts the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% -> But the market is disappointed with lower than expected cut and the Dow falls an additional 718 points to 12,800 by January 4, 2008.
Bernanke's interest rate policies are thus having the opposite affect of Greenspans' -- creating a Bernanke call. Instead of putting a floor underneath the market to bail out investor's mistakes, Bernanke's interest rate cuts create a ceiling above which the market can't rise. And as he lowers interest rates, the effect is to push the market down instead of boosting it. For example, since September's first interest rate cut, the Dow has lost 7% of its value or 939 points.
Bernanke's problem is that his interest rate cuts are not treating the problem, which is that financial institutions are delaying the accurate accounting for bad assets. Here's what I think the Fed should do:
- Contact the Chairman of each U.S. financial institution with significant Level 3 assets -- those hard-to-value bank assets with little market action;
- Require the Chair to convene an independent committee to mark the Level 3 assets to market;
- Demand a report from the Chair within 30 days that makes a conservative estimate of the amount to be written down;
- Send the report to the Fed along with a plan to restore capital following the write-down; and
- If an institution cannot raise sufficient capital, decide whether to merge it with a stronger institution, close it, or help it raise capital.
I don't see any reason why Bernanke can't take these steps. In the interests of the global financial system and his own reputation, it seems to me a much better way to complete his term in office. Otherwise, the market is likely to continue to decline because participants will realize that the Fed is not willing to take the steps needed to address the real problem with the financial system -- a lack of credibility in the accounting for its financial condition.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-07-2008 @ 12:33PM
Carrie said...
Let's get rid of the Federal Reserve and return to a commodity-backed currency. Then our $ would really be worth something again and we wouldn't have these crazy cycles!!! The Fed is a banking cartel and they are robbing us of our prosperity!
1-08-2008 @ 11:39PM
azileretsis said...
Carrie's comment made me laugh. I think Alexander Hamilton rolled over in his grave and Andrew Jackson cheered.
Correlation is not causation. Mr. Bernanke's policies, actually not his but the Federal Open Market Committee, is not causing the movements in the Dow market. It may be just be that investors are feeling jittery.
So, an assessment of assets make help the unknown disappear a little bit. Or, me just being pessimistic, knowing how much banks have overreached in the last ten years may cause more distrust in the market.
1-14-2008 @ 3:25PM
J Scriv said...
I agree with Azil... above. Uncertainty is dangerous to the market. If investors feel that the extent of the situation can be quantified and evaluated, then they can make decisions based on facts, not fear. Also, many people seem to forget that the Fed does not exist to please investors. Interest rates drops and rises are, to an extent, largely symbolic, as they amount to trying to steer an ocean liner with a large paddle. It's no wonder the market doesn't move in lock-step with them. It is much more about 'consumer/investor confidence' - a sort of herd mentality that can create massive moves in the markets on very little data - or just rumor alone. So don't blame the Fed for everything. But would somebody please get their data wrapped around this credit thing and turn it into an observable creature, not a mythical monster of the deep.