Barack Obama is the odds-on favorite -- for now -- to win both tomorrow's New Hampshire primary and the Democratic presidential nomination, according to traders at Dublin-based Trade Exchange Network Co., where people can buy and sell "shares" in political events.The Illinois senator, who upset Hilary Clinton in last week's Iowa caucuses, stands a good chance of repeating his success in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. The Trade Exchange's Intrade system shows Obama with a 90% change of winning the New Hampshire primary, to Clinton's 8.7% and John Edwards' 0.6%. Obama is being given a 66% chance of winning the nomination, compared with 32% for Hillary Clinton and 3% for John Edwards.
On the Republican side, traders are expecting John McCain to have an easy time beating back former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, with an 82% chance of victory to Romney's 14%, in line with conventional wisdom. Chances for Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani appear somewhere between slim and none. McCain retains the edge to win the nomination, with a 4 percentage point lead on Giuliani and double-digit leads over the remaining candidates, online traders say.
Though the data is interesting, people should take it with a grain of salt -- no make that a truckload of salt. The political winds blow in many different directions as primary season heats up. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that pundits expected Clinton and McCain to win their respective primaries easily.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-08-2008 @ 6:35AM
probation officer said...
Thanks to Chris"hardball" Matthews and Tucker Carlson they both have gotten the undecieded republicans and Independends behind Obamo and thankfully the Democrats will regain the white house..Again i give my thanks to these 2 men for getting people out to vote
1-07-2008 @ 7:46PM
Fred said...
I'm really concerned that Iraq Osama will roll back the welfare reforms that Bill Clinton achieved and drastically cut funding to law enforcement. The result, I fear, will be a tsunami of violent crime such as this nation has never seen before.
1-07-2008 @ 9:02PM
lnardozi said...
When you're filling your car with $3 gas and buying some $2.65 a dozen eggs, remember who is running on stopping deficit spending. The war for oil is what caused prices for anything that eats grain to skyrocket. When THOSE prices rise, the fresh fruit seller raises his prices again, now you have some nice $5 a pound grapes in the market. Laugh all you want, it's YOUR money being spent. YOU'RE the one going to pay $250 a week for groceries. Still think Ron Paul sounds like a bad idea? He's the ONLY candidate, Republican or Democrat that is running on reducing your cost of living. Maybe you have plenty money. Me, I'm not so rich.
1-08-2008 @ 10:12PM
Carlton said...
Mr.Obama: I am a gay african american male. Mr.Obama, you have my vote. I have ben a register voter since the age of 18,I am now 48. I am very much against war, we have war of our own in the United States, drugs, murders, hiv,aids, guns, homelessness. Charity begins at home and spreads abroad.
God Bless oyu Mr. Obama,
Carlton