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Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even BiggerThe National Association of Realtors announced that the pending home index, which tabulates contracts signed for homes but not closed, fell 2.6% in November 2007. Economists had expected a 0.7% decline in November 2007. The index rose in September 2007 and October 2007.
Further, the index declined 19.2% during the previous 12 months. The index declined in 3 regions: -13% in the Northeast, -4.1% in the Midwest, -2.1% in the West, but increased +2.3% in the South.
A horrible stat
"Clearly, November's pending home statistic is a horrible stat," economist Steve Affinito told Bloggingstocks Tuesday. "There's no way to sugarcoat it. It reinforces the fact the housing market is in recession. Particularly concerning is the 19% decline over the past year. That's a pronounced contraction. We're going to need stimulus on all fronts, Fed, fiscal to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into a recession."
Affinito said some economists had held out the hope that the housing sector would start its rebound in late 2008. That prospect is very slim now, in his interpretation. "Based on today's numbers, it will be hard for any economist to forecast a rebound in housing for late 2008. The best one could hope for now is a rebound in the spring 2009, if we're fortunate," Affinito said.
The NAR said existing-home sales for 2007 will probably total 5.66 million units, the fifth highest on record, then edge up to 5.70 million this year and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down -1.9% to a median of $217,600, hold even this year and then rise +3.1% in 2009 to $224,400, the association said.
"Clearly, November's pending home statistic is a horrible stat," economist Steve Affinito told Bloggingstocks Tuesday. "There's no way to sugarcoat it. It reinforces the fact the housing market is in recession. Particularly concerning is the 19% decline over the past year. That's a pronounced contraction. We're going to need stimulus on all fronts, Fed, fiscal to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into a recession."
Affinito said some economists had held out the hope that the housing sector would start its rebound in late 2008. That prospect is very slim now, in his interpretation. "Based on today's numbers, it will be hard for any economist to forecast a rebound in housing for late 2008. The best one could hope for now is a rebound in the spring 2009, if we're fortunate," Affinito said.
The NAR said existing-home sales for 2007 will probably total 5.66 million units, the fifth highest on record, then edge up to 5.70 million this year and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down -1.9% to a median of $217,600, hold even this year and then rise +3.1% in 2009 to $224,400, the association said.
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