There's an old political adage that goes, "Regarding the nomination process, Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." Tuesday's New Hampshire primary provided ample evidence of the above, for each party.
Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) strong showing instantaneously catapults him to formidable contender status in the Democratic race. His performance also suggests -- and we won't know this empirically until survey research has been analyzed -- that he has expanded the electorate. Obama increased voter turnout particularly, and unexpectedly, among voters ages 18-21. This age group has had the lowest turnout rate of any age group in primaries and presidential elections since 1952 when political scientists began keeping statistics.

Obama's appeal among independents was also high, and -- also troubling for the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) -- his appeal among Democratic Party-affiliated voters was much stronger than expected. Furthermore, African-American voters -- although not a major factor in New Hampshire -- now appear to be shifting decidedly in his direction nationally, a big change from the previously overwhelming support they gave to Clinton as late as this summer. As a result of the latter, look for the Clinton camp to face a markedly tougher fight in the South Carolina primary, which is the next hurdle, along with Nevada, before Tsunami Tuesday (formerly called Super Tuesday), on February 5.

Still, it's important for readers to remember that although Hillary Clinton faces a now formidable Obama candidacy, there is still time for her to build on her slight New Hampshire victory and win the party's nomination.

Obama's appeal

As noted, the New Hampshire primary followed a familiar refrain in which "Democrats fell in love" with Obama. He deployed a campaign strategy that emphasized what he calls "hope," "change" and a "break from the politics of the past" to convince New Hampshire voters that these are the important qualities for the next president, rather than Clinton's "experience." It's not likely that Obama will be able to win the nomination without specifying exactly what he plans to do to achieve this "hope / change" to solve the nation's problems -- but that is a moot point regarding the New Hampshire primary. Apparently, it was enough for many New Hampshire voters, at least on primary day. Had the primary been based on experience, or achievements, Clinton would have won easily. True, Clinton did win the primary, but not by as large of a margin as she needed to derail Obama's surging popularity.

Next: Hillary Clinton likely to revise strategy, aided by an old friend examines Sen. Clinton's mistakes, and the likely larger role for a trusted campaign strategist. Look for posts on the Republican candidates as well.