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Chasing Value: Adobe (ADBE) -- picture this

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Some companies seem to always be just outside my grasp. They sit on my watch-list for long periods and often never present an opportunity to acquire the stock. Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE), which closed at $42.93 on December 28, 2007, fits the bill. I almost included it in my Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, but alas, I decided I felt more confident in stocks like Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR), which was the last stock added.

I asked one of the advertising company officers in town how important Adobe software was to their business and he replied, "They could not function without it, they would be out of business." I'm sure he was exaggerating, but only a little.

Adobe is not a monopoly because you can work around it with less robust programs, but no company offers the integrated suite of graphics products that Adobe does, including Photoshop, InDesign, Illustrator, Acrobat and if you're online much, you must receive multiple PDF files per day.

Generally speaking, when I am looking for value propositions I am talking about P/E ratios under 10 and higher-than-average dividend yields, but that is not the case for this "value stock." The P/E is about 24 and it does not pay any dividend, so where is the value? For starters, the P/E may be high, but it is not historically high for this company and Adobe is about 13% off its 52-week high.

As you can see from the five-year chart, like most stocks, Adobe zigs and zags, but the long-term trend is up and many analysts think that trend will continue.

Chart

Barron's (subscription required) has done several positive stories on Adobe, and continues to see it as a $50+ stock. They thought it would be last year, think it should be now and cannot imagine why it would not be in 12 months. Yesterday, ADBE closed at $39.46, another 10% less than it would have been had it made my initial list.

Adobe released new software last year, Creative Suite 3, encompassing its complete line of products in a package that is slowly being adopted by numerous industries, including entertainment, advertising, graphic design, product design, marketing, you name it.

I have reviewed the most recent reports by Standard & Poor's and Reuters, both of which are favorable and I agree with most of their sentiments. This is the stock I am going to make my first new pick of the year outside the basic 8 for 2008, based on quality of product, its even lower stock price, historical P/E, management, and almost monopolistic market share. It is the first tech stock I have suggested in a long time, and at today's closing price of $39.25, I think it is a bargain.

Disclosure: I do not own any ADBE shares as of this date.

To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm.

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DJIA-223.328,280.74
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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 10:17 PM

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