Is online learning a recession hedge?


With the stock market down 11% from its October high, we are officially in correction territory. But not all stocks are created equal. Some companies seem to benefit from recessions and their stocks are doing very well.

Back in 2002, I was in a meeting at Babson College where the MBA admissions director was commenting on how applications were up and so were admissions. Given that the economy was very weak at the time, I wondered how that could be. It turns out that people think that a recession is a good time to step out of the work force and get an MBA. They might be laid off anyway and they hope that by the time they complete their degree, the economy will be in better shape.

This got me thinking about whether there was a way to invest in this trend. That's when I discovered online learning stocks such as Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL). Apollo offers educational programs and services from high school through college level at 102 campuses and 157 learning centers in 40 states, Puerto Rico, Alberta, British Columbia, The Netherlands and Mexico, as well as online throughout the world.

Apollo stock is up 89% in the last year. Its most recent year's revenues of $2.8 billion have grown at a 22% compound annual rate in the last five years and its net income was $434 million, growing at 22%. At a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.0 -- on a Price/Earnings ratio of 30.5 and earnings growth of 15% to $3.40 in the fiscal year ending August 2009, it's not cheap.

But if Apollo's growth actually accelerates during the recession, the stock might rise.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Apollo Group securities.

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Last updated: February 09, 2012: 01:22 PM

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