JPMorgan Chase earnings expected to rise 3%

Posted Jan 12th 2008 3:32PM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Forecasts, JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

For more earnings forecasts, see Peter Cohan's Earnings expectations for 10 banks tell a mixed story.

Thomson Financial expects JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) to earn $0.94 when it announces its fourth-quarter earnings on January 16th. That's 3% above the same period in 2006, when it earned $0.91.

JPMorgan Chase is a New York-based bank whose subsidiaries are JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, a national banking association with branches in 17 states, and Chase Bank USA, National Association, a national bank that issues credit cards. In the last year, its revenues were $69.4 billion and its net income totaled $16.3 billion. Its stock has lost 15.7% of its value in the last year, and it now trades at a P/E of 9.

JPMorgan regularly beats estimates. In the second quarter of 2007, it beat by 11.1% and in the third quarter it beat by 4.3%. My hunch is that it will beat expectations.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in JP Morgan Chase securities.

Tags: bank stocks, banks, BankStocks, earnings, financials, forecasts, JPM, JPMorgan Chase, JpmorganChase

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

1-14-2008 @ 7:45PM

Scott Cacciatore said...

Scott Cacciatore thinks JPM will go higher from here:

Earnings are important but it doesnt seem that earnings should hurt the performance of JPM's stock. I much rather discuss the technical analysis effect on JPM stock.

Support Level: There is support for JPM at 40 and around the 35-37 level. If you check out a candlestick chart you can go back to July 06 and then to january and February 06 to see that JPM held very well at the 40 level. Prior to that between March 2005 and November 2005 you can see that JPM traded between 33-37, showing very strong support at 35. Thus if JPM does break down below 40 I would expect it to hold at around the 35-37 level and not go any lower. I was not surprised that JPM rallied along with the entire market late last week and I fully expect JPM to continue to rally. If you check out a chart you will see on January 9, 2008 that JPM fell to about 38.5 only to rally back up and over the 40 level before finally closing just shy of 40. This came after a sharp downturn in the stock. In technical analysis terms this is called a hammer. When a stock holds a support level after a sharp downturn and rallies back from a low intraday the chart Japanese Candlestick that is shown replicates that of a hammer. It is a strong bullish signal and usually means that the stock is ready to begin to rally. On january 10th, JPM had a very strong day. The show shows what is called a bullish engulfing pattern. This is when the stock engulfs or makes up all losses over the past day or two and does this on very high volume which there was on January 10th. This is usually confirmation that the stock will begin to show bullish behavier and will rally. The past two days the stock rallied slightly. This is not a negative. You dont always want very sharp upturns in a stock. I would expect JPM to definitely continue to rally. My only concern is that JPM shows resistence at the 45 level and I am not sure that it will break through and rally past that level, but lets get there first and see where we are at.

A good website to check out Japanese Candlesticks is Litwick.com...you can look at the charts for free.