Wall Street banks such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) are sending their CEOs to the Middle East and Asia to restore their capital depleted by write-downs of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO). To raise $10 billion, for example, Bloomberg News reports that Citigroup is going back to the well of Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.
Reuters reports that hedge funds have $2 trillion -- with almost $22 billion flowing into them in November 2007 alone. With so much money in hedge funds, much of which is in the U.S., I wonder why these Wall Street banks need to go overseas for capital.
Here are three guesses:
- Wall Street knows it can't pull the wool over the eyes of hedge fund managers. Would hedge funds demand to know how big the write-downs of CDOs and MBSs would be before agreeing to invest? Might hedge funds demand management changes before investing? Could hedge funds seek interest payments and option terms that the banks would find too onerous?
- Oil money is so abundant that its owners don't worry as much about returns. Middle Eastern investors have benefited from the rising price of oil -- it's up four-fold since early 2001 -- so they are swimming in cash. They see how much money Prince Alwaleed made on Citigroup and they think they can get in on the same now. Moreover, they are willing to take a minority stake and be passive because they figure that if they lose their entire investment it won't matter. And the influence they get over U.S. foreign policy might be significant.
- The U.S. government wants to avoid a direct Wall Street bailout for ideological reasons. Although the current administration seems fine with tax cuts -- which help the top 1% -- government help is not allowed to extend to Wall Street banks. That's because the administration fears an outcry by consumers who took on the subprime loans that Wall Street profited from packaging. It wouldn't look good if the administration had to bail out those subprime borrowers and Wall Street.
I think it's a big problem that the administration is selling big chunks of the U.S. banking system to countries whose strategic interests are at odds with ours. And the fact that the $2 trillion hedge fund industry is not willing to put a fraction of its capital in Wall Street's biggest banks may tell us something about how bad their balance sheets really are.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup and has no financial interest in Merrill Lynch securities.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-13-2008 @ 1:36PM
jordan walter said...
This is very enlightening insight. Thanks for sharing.
1-13-2008 @ 2:23PM
Joel Liebesfeld said...
I agree that going beyond our borders produces unnecessary political and economic risks. As for the hedge funds, my feeling is that these investing dollars are not altruistic to any notable degree and as such, not motivated to move money unless they can identify an avenue for immediate financial gratification. The reality is that most financial market upturns are led by financial and technology sector turnarounds. So that the hedge funds may now have the unique ability to ignite a rally that they can time and be positioned for.