Can Mitt Romney fix GM and Ford and win Michigan?

Mitt Romney needs a primary win. And he's betting that he'll get one in Michigan -- which has the country's highest unemployment rate -- tomorrow. How does he plan to do that? The Boston Globe reports he'll fix Michigan's biggest employer -- the automobile industry -- including General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).

Last week I did a radio interview in which I was asked how Mitt Romney could turn around his campaign after losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. I suggested that he should figure out what Michigan voters needed in a President and array his strengths against competitors' weaknesses to better meet voters' requirements. What does this mean? As the only candidate with a successful track record as a management consultant and investor, I argued that he could try to win Michigan by appealing to its voters' desire for the good jobs they enjoyed before the U.S. auto industry began losing ground in the 1980s.

As the Globe reported, Romney gave a speech along these lines to the Detroit Economic Club. If he wins the White House, Romney said, "I will roll up my sleeves, and I will personally bring together industry, labor, congressional and state leaders to develop a plan to rebuild America's automotive leadership. Washington should give the auto companies flexibility on higher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, as well as increase funding for research from $4 billion to $20 billion and provide new tax benefits for research and development."

This sounds good. But Romney's problem in my view is that he appears to believe statements that many people find patently false. For instance, last week it was reported that Romney had pulled his advertisements in South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan. During my radio interview, the host read me a statement in which Romney said that he was not aware of the decision to pull these advertisements.

I thought that this statement simply did not pass the "sniff test." I found it impossible to believe that Romney, who is extremely detail-oriented, would not know that his campaign had stopped running ads in South Carolina and Florida. Such a decision is of great strategic importance to his campaign and if he did not know about it, then he is not the skilled strategist that he is trying to portray himself as in Michigan.

Moreover, count me among those who think that after decades of losing to Japanese automakers, Romney's plan is unlikely to enable GM and Ford to start taking market share away from its competitors. The problems that GM and Ford face go far deeper than letting them build cars that guzzle more gas and giving them a few billion dollars worth of government R&D money.

I would hope that the son of an American Motors executive and former Michigan governor could be more realistic and compelling than that.

The polls make it look too close to call. If he wins, Romney will tout his triumph as the beginning of his path to victory. If not, maybe he'll fold up his tent and come back in 2012.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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