Ultra Petroleum (UPL) is well-positioned in a preferred energy form

Posted Jan 14th 2008 5:23PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy

Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil and natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, barring the discovery of a cheap, widely available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Ultra Petroleum is worth an evaluation.

Ultra Petroleum (AMEX: UPL) is in independent oil/natural gas company with core properties in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming

Analysts like UPL's proven reserves of 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent, modest cost structure, adequate-to-good pricing power and likely production increases. The latter stems from the start of operations at the Rocky Express Pipeline in 2008, among other efforts. Further, look for UPL to attract increased attention from investors as the value and benefits of natural gas rise amid continued high oil prices. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for UPL are $1.29/$2.37.

The risks? UPL's core commodity, natural gas, has exhibited a volatile price, historically, and a downtrend in this price would serious hurt UPL's results. Tougher regulations regarding hydrocarbon development in Rocky Mountain territories also could impact results.

The First Call mean rating for UPL is: Buy. [16 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $79.00. [high: $88, low: $42.]

Stock Analysis: Ultra Petroleum is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from UPL's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $44.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Tags: energy sector, natural gas, natural gas exploration, natural gas prices, oil, oil prices, Ultra Petroleum, UPL