Does IBM signal strength for technology in 2008?


With the news that IBM (NYSE: IBM) easily exceeded Wall Street estimates for the fourth quarter 2007, this raises the question of strength and visibility for the general technology space in 2008. IBM beat earnings estimates by 20 cents, reporting $2.80 earnings per share versus consensus of $2.60 per share. The weakness of the U.S. dollar contributed an extra $500 million of revenues when overseas revenues were translated back into U.S. currency. That is a stunning amount of "extra" revenues -- it's all very high margin.

The U.S. technology sector has enjoyed robust revenue and earnings growth through all of 2007. New product releases from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will help sustain its revenue and earnings profile for the next couple of years, as will Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO). International revenues are as important and vital as ever for the technology sector to continue its thriving ways.

IBM indicated that India alone grew by 50% in 2007 from 2006. In 2006, India contributed $700 million in revenues while that number exceeded $1 billion in 2007. Cisco has stated that India and other emerging markets were growing north of 40% per year. No doubt, 2008 should yield the same massive year-over-year growth, as the emerging markets are all about expanding bandwidth and connecting with the rest of the world.

The technology sector will continue to provide exceptional returns for 2008. The new mega-leaders, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have yet to report their fourth-quarter numbers, but they should be exceptional and sustainable for 2008. Apple reported its September 30, 2007, quarterly revenues were comprised of over 40% from foreign sales. This number is not going to go down!!

The group is stable and strong. When Oracle reported its November 30, 2007, quarterly results, the same song was heard -- international leading the way and sustainable.

If this market continues to act in a schizophrenic way -- and it will as we hear all the major financials report their disastrous results in the next couple of weeks -- you may be able to opportunistically buy some quality technology names at a discount price....

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research and the author of Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 01:16 PM

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