Wal-Mart, which was called a stock to hold onto this morning by Goldman Sachs, also made another list. Try this one on for size: The Motley Fool called Wal-Mart the worst stock to own in 2008. Wow -- those are two different viewpoints! Wal-Mart shares are pretty much where they were in 1999 -- in the $45 to $50 range. Does that mean it's the worst stock to own in 2008? For Wal-Mart to grow revenues in the double digits, the figure must be in the tens of billions of dollars. Based on its sheer revenue size alone, Wal-Mart should be growing in the low single digits, right? Does the market recognize this when pitting it against retailer competitors who have higher growth rates? I suspect that it does not.
In its analysis, the Fool looked at statistics like revenue per employee, quarterly revenue growth and P/E ratio between Wal-Mart, Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Costco Wholesale (NYSE: COST) and found Wal-Mart's numbers weren't the most impressive of the bunch. Hence, it's the worst stock to own in 2008. So, although a probable recession may cause more customers to enter Wal-Mart stores, as Goldman argues, the cost of Chinese-made products (a mainstay in Wal-Mart stores) may rise and cause the company to experience margin shortfalls or actually raise customer prices (something I've referred to in the past).
Will Wal-Mart stock rise or fall in 2008? You make the call. If it ends up at $47.23 (where it is this morning) a year from now, you can always stuff that cash under a mattress in 2009 to get the same return.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-16-2008 @ 11:42AM
margaret shiver said...
I don't know why the comments are all so bad on wmt you can never get in the store without it being crowded and everyone has a cart full so to me that speaks well for the company
1-16-2008 @ 11:56AM
roudy11z said...
I agree with #1 even though WMT hasn't done much since '99. However the M-Fool did say for those of us who have held WMT since 1981 that we are still ok. We caught all the stock splits which seems to be a thing of the past. ON another note lets fire Lee Scott and his cronies. Points to ponder maybe?
Roud
1-16-2008 @ 12:18PM
dlkkk said...
MFool obviously has not looked at my JAVA
and Fifth THird Bank Stocks recently Both are
down 50%-at least WMT is flat.
1-16-2008 @ 9:27PM
Brockage said...
True enough, dlkk, the key in this market isn't to make money, just keep from losing it.
1-22-2008 @ 2:08AM
Fran Pipkin said...
It is not so much how many people are comming in to the stores to shop, it is how Walmart conducts their business. They would grow more if they provided at least minimal customer service.
1-22-2008 @ 12:29PM
Guru said...
Sachs is right...We will all see at the end of the QTR.
FOOL ...is just that...enough said.