There have been some rumors floating around about the Fed possibly making an emergency rate cut in the next month in order to "save" the market. If you are one of those people who think that this would be a good idea, remember the old saying: be careful what you wish for, because you may just get it.
With the way the market has been acting lately, it would be easy to look to the Fed to come in early to bail us out with an emergency rate cut, but if this actually did take place I think the reaction would be the opposite of what people would expect. The impression it would send to the markets would be that we are in a panic situation and that things are in extremely bad shape. I just don't think that is the message that the Fed wants to put out at this time.
Right now, it looks like we can pretty much count on a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, but rumors are already starting to fly that we could see additional cuts coming quickly thereafter. Do I think that we could use a full percent cut in rates? Yes, I do think that the market is calling for a higher than 50 basis point cut, but I have to believe that any emergency cuts would send out a horrible message to the market.
Emergency cuts are typically used during severe economic times, and although we are going through a rough period, I don't think anyone wants to start implying we are in a severe crisis just yet.
Inflation will continue to remain a major concern, but even inflation concerns have seemed to lessen a bit lately. If inflation continues to remain somewhat under control, the Fed will have an easier time lowering rates this year, but it will still have to be very careful not to over-inflate with excessive rate cuts. Some analysts are estimating that the Fed is going to need to lower rates from the current 4.25% all the way down to closer to 2% if it wants to fend off a possible recession.
Do I think we are going to see 2% fund rates this year? No, but I do think we are going to get down to around 3 or 3.25% before it is all said and done. Having said that, a lot depends on oil prices and consumer prices. Oil has somewhat leveled off around $90, and as long as we don't see prices jumping up to $110 or $120 a barrel, we should continue to see rates lower. Consumer prices will also be a factor, but we just got some encouraging news today that in December consumer price increases may have begun to slow.
So, will we get multiple rate cuts this year? I think definitely. Will we get any emergency cuts? I am betting not -- and more than that, I am really hoping we do not, for the message that sends could easily outweigh the results it would create.
What are your thoughts? Should we be looking for, or even hoping for emergency rate cuts over the next month, or will the Fed slowly continue to lower rates at its regular meetings? Let us know your thoughts on the pro's and con's over further rate cuts to the market.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-16-2008 @ 2:30PM
Louie Jones said...
When are the left leaning wackos going to realize that a great deal of our economic problems stem from their instance on going green,and getting away from oil.
Know why food is higher.Ethanol!Corn prices have been driven way up by this insane effort to make a product that uses almost as much energy to produce as it makes.The price of corn affects the cost of meat,dairy products etc.
oil is the energy of the future until we can get some nukes on-line(10 years or more if we start now) .In the meantime drill for oil where we can controll it,like maybe real close to the Chinese rigs in the Gulf
1-19-2008 @ 11:39AM
David said...
Remember we are the people of the USA and can do things rather rapidly, ie build nuclear plants rapidly and safely. we could also build oil refineries the same way as well as DRILL FOR OIL. Get the enviromentalists out of the way and things can get done, otherwise watch out as we will no longer be a superpower.
1-16-2008 @ 4:52PM
Alphonse J. DiGiovanni MD said...
Kudos to David. Get the enviromentalists out of the way and exploit nuclear energy. It is safe, clean and efficient. Get out of Middle East oil dependence.
Al Dee
1-16-2008 @ 6:43PM
Bob said...
1% is a bad message, granted. It's also necessary. It's the only way to reopen the pipeline that's been driving the economy- refinanced home equity. It's a false source, money created by inflated value-- but the only one we've got. Hell of a note, huh? Jobs aren't going to drive a recovery- they've been outsourced and gone offshore. Jobs are shrinking, a federal "stimulus" package of $600 income tax rebates isn't going to put enough energy into consumer-level channels, oil/energy, food, and health care / pharmaceuticals are siphoning the basic consumer cash stream into tighter, higher corporate channels where it doesn't circulate as broadly. 1% will still take 6 months to take effect, even if banks do manage to streamline their process and pump money into the mortgage market. I can't see any other source that will provide the transfusion needed. The outlook is not good, sort of a near-perfect economic storm coming on fast. By the time it's done, unless somehow a major infusion of money is accomplished at the consumer level, most middle-class Americans will be just another second-class suburb in the world economy.
Good luck. I hope you find your way through.
1-17-2008 @ 7:49AM
LISA said...
I agree, not too fast. A 1% decrease is enough for right now. More gradually later. IncomeTax decreases would be very helpful also.
1-17-2008 @ 9:41AM
PCC said...
Why should I be willing to subsidize people who have lived beyond their means by receiving lower interest rates on my savings.
1-17-2008 @ 10:36AM
Heinrich Berghaus said...
Need a new tax system. The one we use is obsolete and very confusing and expensive for the average taxpayer. How about a National Federal Sales Tax with a large exemption amount for people who make $100k or less per year. The tax rate would be much lower than it is now. Presently we pay 45% when you include social security, medicare and the corporate tax rate of 15% [the lowest starting rate]. May hear your comments?.
1-17-2008 @ 10:57AM
Jimmy said...
It's getting to be time to start paying for the war. Just like the stagflation era under Jimmy Carter, the US economy will soon be paying for the Iraqi war under the next President. The only good news is that it should not be as bad as having to pay for the loss in Vietnam. There is a difference between making inefficient internal choices in an economy and simply loosing the money externally. What we really need is for some blogger who can make educated guesses to figure out just what it will take to pay for the Iraqi War.
1-21-2008 @ 8:21PM
Dudley DoRight said...
A surprise rate cut isn't the issue. Whether or not it's now or next week is immaterial. The problem is that the market has widely factored in the rate cut and the market is still falling. Also, even if we get a 75 basis point cut, it won't show up in the economy for some time. We need a more inventive and aggressive economic stimulus package to help in the shorter term. There is a lot of fear in the market and it still hasn't reached capitulation levels. That means more pain ahead.
1-22-2008 @ 4:25PM
ricky said...
I think most likely there will be emergency rate cut this week and may be today(22 january 08). The reason is Dow future and S&P future down a lot and it is worst since the 911. All the Asia market is bleeding hard today(Hang Seng down > 2000, Australia down > 7% Japan down and korea down 5%). Investors do not have patient to wait until 30 Jan 08. Only Ben Bernanke (the Superman) can save the world now. But, I might be wrong.