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Pepsi hasn't lost its fizz

We all know the soft drink giant owns popular brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew and Gatorade, the perfect complement to a snack food portfolio that includes Frito Lay, Ruffles and Doritos. However, you may not realize what those brands mean in dollars and cents.

Over the past year, PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) has raked in $37 billion in sales. And powerful economies of scale have helped margins remain strong (despite higher commodity costs), meaning a good chunk of incremental sales growth from fast-growing foreign markets has flowed through to the bottom line. In fact, the company currently generates more than $1 billion in free cash flow per quarter.

Much of that cash is handed over to shareholders. The firm's streak of uninterrupted dividend increases is not measured in years, but decades.

Pepsi has continued to prosper, particularly overseas where revenue and operating income both jumped around 20% last quarter. Meanwhile, the shares have been marching higher as well, climbing nearly 20% to reach Monday's close of $77.37 -- not far from my $80 fair value estimate.

And I think this wealth creation machine can continue to keep shareholders happy going forward. Though demand for carbonated beverages has been somewhat tepid, the outlook for bottled water, teas, energy drinks and other innovative concoctions is bright. And given Pepsi's large international exposure, the company also is likely to continue benefiting from a weak dollar.

Meanwhile, in the face of steep gas prices, tumbling home values and tighter access to credit, consumer confidence readings have slipped to multi-year lows. There also is increasing talk that U.S. consumers are set to cut back on their spending in the months ahead.

Fortunately, consumer staples stocks tend to shine in this harsh environment as investors seek out the shelter of defensive plays. Household budget cuts likely won't dampen sales of drinks and potato chips.

Given its relatively modest upside potential, I would prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point in Pepsi before considering a position. Nevertheless, should the economy continue to lose steam, the stock could easily gain favor and climb well north of its $80 fair value.

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 05:16 AM

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