MarketWatch writer Dan Gallagher offered a brief synopsis of comments by Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck in reaction to Peck's January 17 upgrade of eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY). In my opinion, Gallagher was too kind with his writing. Peck's comments are a weak attempt to cloud perceptions, nothing more. Let's take a look at some of those words, shall we?In using a pendulum metaphor, Peck refers to eBay investors as being either greedy or fearful. I believe that to mean he thinks investors who sold in the $40 range were greedy and investors who are now resisting the $30 mark live in fear. I give more credit to the investors in their reaction to issues we've discussed. Mr.Peck seems to think they've overreacted on both ends.
Robert Peck offered the statement that, "eBay's issues have been overly accounted for" as if eBay's issues comprise a tangible, one time composite. I'll tell you as fact that eBay's negative issues are active and on going. You've read the news and I think you sense that there's much pressure coming in. Amazon clipped eBay's holiday season page views. Ticket selling competitors are on the prowl. Skype still flounders without declared intent and Meg Whitman is now toying with exit plans.
Peck concedes that eBay could be affected by changes in consumer spending due to recession but he would like us to believe that increased bargain hunting will offset possible negative affects. What he doesn't mention is that a bargain binge could deeply affect the bottom line of PayPal, eBay's lion-hearted revenue generator. We must also not forget that a checkout service has taken hold via Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and now we're hearing whispers of increased payment services from Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).
eBay is scheduled to release Q4 results January 23 and analyst consensus calls for earnings of 41 cents a share on revenue of $2.14 billion. In comparison, eBay posted earnings of 31 cents a share on revenue of 1.7 billion just one year ago. This brings me to the final issue I'd like to address, and it's something I'd personally like to do something about... as if I could:
Would someone please lightly tap on eBay CEO Meg Whitman's office door, peak in there for a moment and nicely ask;
Where's our dividend, Meg? Yeah, that's what I'm talkin' about.
Gary Sattler does not hold position in eBay, Amazon, Bear Stearns or Google.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-18-2008 @ 6:42PM
pointless said...
All of your negative points apply to Amazon and Google as well. So, you are not making any points that the stock market has not discounted!
1-18-2008 @ 9:43PM
yawn said...
Here we go again the resident wanna be ebay critic. Gary if you are going to be critical of ebay at least short ebay stock and have some skin in the game. That's right have some back bone but we all know the Mrs and you failed at Ebay and have an ax to grind. Objectivity is not your forte.
Until then respect is not in the cards for you except from the ebay ex-seller entourage steaming up the ebay glass door firm close.
1-19-2008 @ 6:26AM
Gary E. Sattler said...
I don't analyze stocks, and never did. I offer commentary on business and the stock analysis of others.
We still occasionally buy and sell on eBay. We still maintain a store presence there. We have 600+ feedback on a 100% rating. Check us out, we're there.
If you want to be taken seriously, learn the proper spelling of eBay.
Until then, have a nice day.
*sigh*
1-19-2008 @ 1:55PM
daredevil said...
Pointless,
Gary was actually an user/poster here constantly blasting ebay at any chance fully admitting he and his wife were forced out of Ebay due to the fee increase. Then miraculously this so called amateur investment blogg forum gave him a forum as a wannabe writer/commentator.
What a joke. They guy couldn't analyze stock if his life depended on it.
1-22-2008 @ 12:31AM
Mozelle said...
WOW!
I see that everyone's attacking poor old Gary again! lol.
Truth is, Gary has a valid point. As a stock holder I am very concerned where this stock is heading.
Truth is...eBay indeed lost a few million people due to fee increases over the years. (They all fled to Amazon.com.)
Any company that thinks they can survive without stiff competition has their head buried in the sand.
Meg and company have indeed stopped growing, and need to start paying dividends to their investors, to drum up new buyers.
They need to lower their insertion fees all the way around. Sellers should only pay if they sell something! Not for listing!
And last but least they should clean up their Feedback system which is flawed. People should not be allowed to retaliate a negative feedback with a negative feedback. They should be allowed a RESPOND. Not a negative on a negative!
eBay needs a serious overhaul if they want to survive!